VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 20 pts · 24 played
LLDLL
1–2Full time
Hamburger SV
11th · 26 pts · 24 played
WWDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Hamburger SV. VfL Wolfsburg had 6 days of rest, Hamburger SV 2.8 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days6 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV35%
VfL Wolfsburg44%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV29%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV34%
VfL Wolfsburg32%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV43%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV35%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 24
Team strength
VfL WolfsburgHamburger SV
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
50
AttackIn forecast
37
42
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgHamburger SV
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
2.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
79%
Scored inContext
63%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.21
ShotsContext
12.21
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
35%
On target shareContext
38%
6.92
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.08
Shots allowedContext
13.46
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
4.39
BlocksContext
3.48
3.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
63%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
406
PassesContext
399
326
Accurate passesContext
327
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.88
FoulsContext
12.00
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
2.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
58%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.71
16.30
Shots allowedContext
12.70
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.80
BlocksContext
3.20
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
421
PassesContext
397
341
Accurate passesContext
320
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.60
FoulsContext
11.40
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km841 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 841 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
18J. Adjetey
6J. Belocian
5Vinicius Souza
31Y. Gerhardt
41Jan Bürger
24C. Eriksen
19J. Lindstrøm
17D. Pejčinović
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
8Daniel Elfadli
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
2W. Mikelbrencis
7Jean-Luc Dompe
27P. Otele
11R. Königsdörffer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Hamburger SV+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
0.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 2.17
Hamburger SV · Away
0.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–8 A | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 3–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 17 of 69 · 0.74 per game | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 VfL Wolfsburg wins0 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025Hamburger SV0–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.21 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.58 | 2.54 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 54% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 38% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.20 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.26 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.96 | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 14/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 11/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.51 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.33 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 3.76
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+46%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins38%league 47%
VfL Wolfsburg2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Apr 25H · RB Leipzig2–32
- W31 Aug 24A · Holstein Kiel2–07
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg24 games · scored 33 · conceded 53
8
6
0-15
5
8
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
9
61-75
5
16
76-90
Hamburger SV24 games · scored 26 · conceded 35
2
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
7
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 29
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
9
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
