VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart – 18 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 18 · 14:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg 15th · 5 pts · 6 played DDLLL

0–3Full time

VfB Stuttgart 4th · 12 pts · 6 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 45). VfL Wolfsburg had 14 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 13 and had to travel 420 km.

Away travel420 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

VfL Wolfsburg35%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.52

VfL Wolfsburg35%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

VfL Wolfsburg35%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart40%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.53

VfL Wolfsburg28%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart47%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.71

VfL Wolfsburg35%

Draw27%

VfB Stuttgart38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.37

Over 2.5 56% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolfsburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 58

Team strength

VfL Wolfsburg

VfB Stuttgart

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

50 AttackIn forecast 70

42 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfL Wolfsburg

VfB Stuttgart

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

67% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.67 ShotsContext 14.83

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

27% On target shareContext 35%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.83

60% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 9%

— OffsidesContext 1.67

13.17 Shots allowedContext 10.33

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

3.67 BlocksContext 2.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

64% Save rateContext 85%

49% PossessionIn forecast 59%

403 PassesContext 525

330 Accurate passesContext 454

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.17 FoulsContext 11.17

10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

60% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.80 ShotsContext 18.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

27% On target shareContext 33%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.10

56% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.60 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.50 BlocksContext 2.50

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

62% Save rateContext 76%

48% PossessionIn forecast 60%

396 PassesContext 539

322 Accurate passesContext 472

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.95

8.70 FoulsContext 10.60

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfL Wolfsburg

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km901 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel420 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct	13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	420 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	901 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfL Wolfsburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Grabara(G)

25A. Zehnter 4K. Koulierakis 15M. Jenz 2K. Fischer

32M. Svanberg 5Vinicius Souza

21J. Mæhle 24C. Eriksen 11A. Daghim

23J. Wind

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 14L. Jaquez

7M. Mittelstädt 6A. Stiller 30Chema Andrés 22L. Assignon

28N. Nartey 8Tiago Tomás

11B. El Khannouss

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfL Wolfsburg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfL Wolfsburg-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
VfB Stuttgart+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

VfL Wolfsburg · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

VfB Stuttgart · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart
1.FC Köln	D 3–3 H	W 2–1 A
1. FC Heidenheim	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.75 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

15 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2VfL Wolfsburg
28 Sep 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–2VfB Stuttgart
2 Mar 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–3VfB Stuttgart
7 Oct 2023VfB Stuttgart3–1VfL Wolfsburg
18 Mar 2023VfB Stuttgart0–1VfL Wolfsburg
1 Oct 2022VfL Wolfsburg3–2VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.33
Conceded per game	1.67	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.33	2.93
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	17%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	6	6

	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.25
Conceded per game	1.67	1.13
Match goals	3.00	2.38	2.93
Over 1.5	67%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	13%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	38%
Failed to score	33%	13%
Games	6	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.83
Corners conceded	7.67	5.67
Match total	12.17	11.50	10.20
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.67
Opponent cards	2.50	1.83
Match total	4.33	3.50	4.49
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6

	VfL Wolfsburg	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	7.20
Corners conceded	6.40	4.40
Match total	11.20	11.60	10.20
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.40	3.20	4.49
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 4.25

Red cards0.19league 0.25

Cards 5+34%league 44%

Fouls22.7league 22.8

Penalties0.28league 0.42

Home wins52%league 42%

VfL Wolfsburg4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W14 Jan 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–11
D4 Feb 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–22
W19 Aug 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–03
L4 Dec 21A · FSV Mainz 050–31

VfB Stuttgart9 with this referee

Record1-4-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds3

W22 Sep 24H · Borussia Dortmund5–11
L5 Nov 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
L1 Apr 23A · Union Berlin0–31
D24 Jan 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–23
L12 Nov 22A · Bayer Leverkusen0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.