Villarreal vs Athletic Club – 27 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 20:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played WDLWW

1–0Full time

Athletic Club 8th · 10 pts · 6 played WWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 68). Villarreal had 4 days of rest, Athletic Club 4.1 and had to travel 438 km.

Away travel438 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Villarreal47%

Draw27%

Athletic Club26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.04

Villarreal49%

Draw26%

Athletic Club25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Villarreal48%

Draw27%

Athletic Club25%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.03

Villarreal40%

Draw28%

Athletic Club32%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.17

Villarreal48%

Draw26%

Athletic Club26%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.12

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 3

Team strength

Villarreal

Athletic Club

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

76 AttackIn forecast 51

73 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Athletic Club

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

83% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 17%

16.33 ShotsContext 13.17

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

35% On target shareContext 33%

10.83 Shots in the boxContext 8.83

68% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.33

8.00 Shots allowedContext 8.00

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.17

4.00 BlocksContext 2.00

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

67% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

463 PassesContext 443

404 Accurate passesContext 367

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.83 FoulsContext 12.67

11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.33

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.40 ShotsContext 11.90

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 29%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

66% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.83

12.10 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

4.25 BlocksContext 2.33

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

78% Save rateContext 66%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

428 PassesContext 405

368 Accurate passesContext 330

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.00 FoulsContext 13.80

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,788 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel438 km944 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	438 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,788 km	944 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

23Sergi Cardona 12Renato Veiga 4Rafa Marín 15S. Mouriño

6M. Solomon 18P. Gueye 16T. Partey 11I. Akhomach

9G. Mikautadze 19N. Pépé

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 15Lekue

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

20Unai Gómez 8Oihan Sancet 9I. Williams

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal-0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Athletic Club+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.33

Athletic Club · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Athletic Club
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 H
Girona	W 5–0 H	D 1–1 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Villarreal wins5 draws4 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.30 Over 2.530% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

6 Apr 2025Villarreal0–0Athletic Club
8 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–0Villarreal
14 Apr 2024Athletic Club1–1Villarreal
5 Nov 2023Villarreal2–3Athletic Club
13 May 2023Villarreal5–1Athletic Club
30 Oct 2022Athletic Club1–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.17
Conceded per game	0.83	1.17
Match goals	2.83	2.33	2.54
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	47%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

	Villarreal	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.17
Conceded per game	0.83	1.17
Match goals	2.83	2.33	2.54
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	47%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	7.00
Corners conceded	2.80	3.83
Match total	8.40	10.83	9.46
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	100% 6/6
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.67
Opponent cards	2.17	2.00
Match total	4.17	3.67	4.23
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6

	Villarreal	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.40
Corners conceded	4.33	3.80
Match total	8.77	9.20	9.46
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.30
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	3.80	3.20	4.23
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.95

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+33%league 42%

Fouls27.0league 24.7

Penalties0.00league 0.30

Home wins100%league 45%

Villarreal

No previous matches with this referee.

Athletic Club

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.