Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were clear favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 38). Elche usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Villarreal had 7.9 days of rest, Elche 7 and had to travel 193 km.
Away travel193 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Elche17%
Villarreal63%
Draw22%
Elche16%
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Elche17%
Villarreal54%
Draw25%
Elche22%
Villarreal63%
Draw21%
Elche16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 36
Team strength
Villarreal
Elche
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
76
AttackIn forecast
39
73
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealElche
1.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
85%
Scored inContext
85%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.62
ShotsContext
10.65
4.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.04
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.96
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
68%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
3.06
OffsidesContext
2.35
12.12
Shots allowedContext
14.19
3.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.69
4.08
BlocksContext
3.92
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
66%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
393
PassesContext
507
324
Accurate passesContext
437
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.12
FoulsContext
12.38
11.62
Fouls sufferedContext
14.15
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.35
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.20
BlocksContext
4.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
59%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
369
PassesContext
482
300
Accurate passesContext
405
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.90
FoulsContext
11.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km499 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel193 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 193 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 499 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
4Rafa Marín
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
19N. Pépé
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
19G. Diangana
42Buba Sangaré
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Elche-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-2
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 0.85
Elche · Away
0.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 48 of 75 · 1.92 per game | 26 of 75 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Villarreal wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.14
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 3 Jan 2026Elche1–3Villarreal
- 4 Feb 2023Elche3–1Villarreal
- 4 Sep 2022Villarreal4–0Elche
- 16 Jan 2022Elche1–0Villarreal
- 22 Sep 2021Villarreal4–1Elche
- 6 Feb 2021Elche2–2Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.85 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 2.81 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 69% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Villarreal | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.91 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 7.92 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 9/23 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 19% 5/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 81% 21/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Villarreal | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.30 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.20 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.20
Red cards0.19league 0.28
Cards 5+39%league 46%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.22league 0.37
Home wins36%league 46%
Villarreal1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L17 Jan 26A · Real Betis0–23
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Aug 25H · Real Betis1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal26 games · scored 48 · conceded 31
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
4
31-45
12
6
46-60
8
5
61-75
7
9
76-90
Elche26 games · scored 34 · conceded 39
5
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
8
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
7
15
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
