Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Villarreal. Villarreal had 6 days of rest, Getafe 7.7 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days6 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal58%
Draw25%
Getafe17%
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Getafe16%
Villarreal59%
Draw24%
Getafe16%
Villarreal51%
Draw27%
Getafe22%
Villarreal60%
Draw23%
Getafe17%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 29
Team strength
Villarreal
Getafe
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
76
AttackIn forecast
27
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealGetafe
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
93%
Scored inContext
64%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.14
ShotsContext
9.07
4.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
31%
8.79
Shots in the boxContext
4.92
66%
Box shareContext
49%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.69
11.79
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.75
BlocksContext
2.38
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
73%
Save rateContext
82%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
427
PassesContext
285
363
Accurate passesContext
199
85%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.50
FoulsContext
13.36
11.36
Fouls sufferedContext
14.86
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
8.80
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
36%
On target shareContext
30%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
4.63
61%
Box shareContext
46%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.80
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.11
BlocksContext
2.56
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
82%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
400
PassesContext
287
335
Accurate passesContext
197
84%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.50
FoulsContext
12.90
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km812 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 812 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.1 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
12A. Nyom
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
17Kiko Femenía
6Mario Martín
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
21Juan Iglesias
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Getafe+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 2.57
- Conceded
- 0.57
Getafe · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game | 15 of 30 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Villarreal wins4 draws0 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 30 Mar 2025Getafe1–2Villarreal
- 20 Oct 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
- 16 Feb 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
- 30 Sep 2023Getafe0–0Villarreal
- 27 Feb 2023Villarreal2–1Getafe
- 28 Aug 2022Getafe0–0Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 36% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 36% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Villarreal | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.80 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.45 | 4.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 8.79 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.21 | 4.92 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Villarreal | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.63 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 7.13 | 8.40 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.80 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.28league 4.01
Red cards0.34league 0.27
Cards 5+69%league 45%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins48%league 46%
Villarreal1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D30 Sep 23A · Getafe0–05
Getafe3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D27 Sep 25H · Levante1–14
- L1 Dec 23A · Las Palmas0–26
- D30 Sep 23H · Villarreal0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal14 games · scored 29 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
6
16-30
5
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Getafe14 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
