Villarreal vs Napoli – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 23rd · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–1Full time

Napoli 27th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Villarreal. Villarreal were without N. Pépé. Napoli were without A. Buongiorno and Alisson Santos. Villarreal had 3 days of rest, Napoli 3 and had to travel 1,220 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel1,220 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Villarreal48%

Draw24%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.26

Villarreal44%

Draw26%

Napoli31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.20

Villarreal47%

Draw24%

Napoli29%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.28

Villarreal40%

Draw25%

Napoli35%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.41

Villarreal48%

Draw24%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.23

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

23°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 82%

Warm

Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 135

Team strength

Villarreal

Napoli

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

76 AttackIn forecast 61

73 DefenceIn forecast 70

58 Form indexContext 60

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack−9%

Defense risk+6%

Napoli

Attack−21%

Defense risk+27%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Villarreal

Napoli

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.40 ShotsContext 13.10

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

42% On target shareContext 36%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

67% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.70

12.80 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

6.00 BlocksContext 4.50

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

74% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 54%

562 PassesContext 522

498 Accurate passesContext 459

89% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.10 FoulsContext 8.50

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal LLWWL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km621 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts
L14 SepH · Real Betis1–21.7 xPts
L8 SepA · Borussia Dortmund2–31.0 xPts

Napoli LLWDW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,220 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Arsenal0–10.7 xPts
L5 SepA · Inter2–30.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct	3Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,220 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	621 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

20Carlos Romero 12Renato Veiga 6Pau Navarro 15S. Mouriño

10Alberto Moleiro 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 24N. Saliba

9G. Mikautadze 7Gerard Moreno

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 16Rafa Marín

22G. Di Lorenzo 8S. McTominay 6B. Gilmour 21M. Politano

23Giovane 11K. De Bruyne

19R. Højlund

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −20.1% · Defence line −2.4% of weighted minutes

ATT N. Pépé Starter 7.07 Att −17.0%
MID T. Buchanan Rotation 6.66 Att −3.1% Def −2.4%

Napoli Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −20.1% · Defence line −18.5% of weighted minutes

DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.66 Def −12.0%
ATT Alisson Santos Starter 7.03 Att −15.3%
DEF M. Olivera Rotation 6.78 Def −3.6%
MID F. Anguissa Rotation 6.69 Att −2.1% Def −1.2%
MID A. Vergara Rotation 6.82 Att −1.6% Def −1.0%
MID C. Favasuli Rotation 6.77 Att −1.1% Def −0.6%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Marianucci

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Napoli-0.7 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home No home games yet this season.

Napoli · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	1.00	2.98
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Villarreal	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.00
Match goals	3.70	2.60	2.98
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	70%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	1.00
Corners conceded	9.00	6.00
Match total	16.00	7.00	9.10
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Villarreal	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.44
Corners conceded	5.30	4.56
Match total	11.90	9.00	9.10
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.10
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	4.20	2.90	3.75
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.39league 3.60

Red cards0.21league 0.15

Cards 5+50%league 35%

Fouls23.1league 23.2

Penalties0.27league 0.15

Home wins42%league 60%

Villarreal1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Feb 22H · Juventus1–11

Napoli1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L21 Oct 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–62

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.