Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Villarreal had 4 days of rest, Valencia 7.1 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days4 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Villarreal47%
Draw28%
Valencia24%
Villarreal54%
Draw25%
Valencia22%
Villarreal47%
Draw28%
Valencia25%
Villarreal40%
Draw29%
Valencia30%
Villarreal49%
Draw27%
Valencia24%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 47
Team strength
Villarreal
Valencia
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
76
AttackIn forecast
39
73
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealValencia
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
83%
Scored inContext
75%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.83
ShotsContext
10.75
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
27%
8.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.04
67%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
3.06
OffsidesContext
1.94
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.92
3.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
4.18
BlocksContext
3.09
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
68%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
399
PassesContext
407
331
Accurate passesContext
333
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.50
FoulsContext
11.83
11.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.70
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
37%
On target shareContext
24%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.80
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.50
BlocksContext
2.44
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
63%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
371
PassesContext
419
301
Accurate passesContext
343
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.50
FoulsContext
12.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Valencia
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Feb | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
3Copete
24E. Cömert
4Unai Núñez
14José Gayà
2G. Rodríguez
8Javi Guerra
11Luis Rioja
17L. Ramazani
23F. Ugrinic
6U. Sadiq
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Valencia-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-2
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 0.83
Valencia · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | L 0–6 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 45 of 69 · 1.96 per game | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Villarreal wins3 draws3 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.10
Over 2.530%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 25 Oct 2025Valencia0–2Villarreal
- 15 Feb 2025Villarreal1–1Valencia
- 31 Aug 2024Valencia1–1Villarreal
- 17 Mar 2024Villarreal1–0Valencia
- 2 Jan 2024Valencia3–1Villarreal
- 3 May 2023Valencia1–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.58 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 54% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 25% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Villarreal | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.95 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 5.24 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 10.24 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 8/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.54 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 4.21 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 16/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Villarreal | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.70 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.70 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.17
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 46%
Fouls24.4league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.38
Home wins36%league 47%
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L2 Jan 24A · Valencia1–35
- D22 Oct 23H · Alaves1–14
Valencia5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L24 Aug 25A · Osasuna0–12
- L14 May 25A · Alaves0–12
- D2 Mar 24H · Real Madrid2–22
- W2 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–12
- W16 Sep 23H · Atletico Madrid3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal24 games · scored 45 · conceded 26
4
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
11
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Valencia24 games · scored 25 · conceded 37
3
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
11
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
