Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Villarreal47.4%fair odds 2.11
Draw28.2%fair odds 3.55
Valencia24.4%fair odds 4.10
Expected goals1.43 – 0.95total 2.38
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Valencia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Villarreal ↓ · Valencia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Villarreal goals, columns Valencia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.54
- 1–012.6%7.94
- 0–010.0%10.03
- 2–09.5%10.58
- 2–19.0%11.14
- 0–18.2%12.25
- 1–26.0%16.73
- 3–04.5%22.26
- 3–14.3%23.44
- 2–24.3%23.47
Winning margin
9.1%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 11.04
14.5%
Villarreal by 2
fair 6.89
23.8%
Villarreal by 1
fair 4.20
28.2%
Draw
fair 3.55
15.6%
Valencia by 1
fair 6.39
6.4%
Valencia by 2
fair 15.55
2.3%
Valencia by 3+
fair 42.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Villarreal goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
Valencia goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 47.4% | 49.1% | -1.7 pp |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.6% | +1.6 pp |
| Valencia win | 24.4% | 24.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.4% | 48.1% | -5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.2% | 51.6% | -4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.43 | 1.57 | -0.14 |
| Expected goals Valencia | 0.95 | 1.03 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Villarreal win47.4%2.11
- Draw28.2%3.55
- Valencia win24.4%4.10
- Double chance Villarreal or draw75.6%1.32
- Double chance Villarreal or Valencia71.8%1.39
- Double chance Valencia or draw52.6%1.90
- Draw no bet Villarreal66.0%1.52
- Draw no bet Valencia34.0%2.94
Goals
- Over 0.590.0%1.11
- Over 1.569.3%1.44
- Over 2.542.4%2.36
- Over 3.521.6%4.63
- Over 4.59.3%10.78
- Under 1.530.7%3.26
- Under 2.557.6%1.74
- Under 3.578.4%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes47.2%2.12
- No52.8%1.90
- Yes and over 2.534.0%2.94
- Villarreal win and yes18.7%5.36
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- Valencia win and yes10.4%9.66
Team goals
- Villarreal over 0.576.0%1.32
- Villarreal over 1.541.7%2.40
- Villarreal over 2.517.3%5.79
- Valencia over 0.561.3%1.63
- Valencia over 1.524.6%4.07
- Valencia over 2.57.1%14.04
- Villarreal clean sheet38.7%2.58
- Valencia clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Villarreal win to nil28.7%3.48
- Valencia win to nil14.1%7.11
Handicap
- Villarreal −1.523.6%4.24
- Villarreal −2.59.1%11.04
- Valencia +1.576.4%1.31
- Valencia +2.590.9%1.10
- Valencia −1.58.8%11.40
- Villarreal +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored247
Favourite won53.8%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right58.7%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 37.8% | 37.2% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.6% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 54.7% | 58.0% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.5% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 216 of 247 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5692 | 0.5627 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.6% | 55.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 216 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 247 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.