Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
16th · 19 pts · 21 played
DLLDL
0–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 54 pts · 21 played
WWLDW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 5.9 and had to travel 583 km.
Away travel583 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen11%
Draw16%
Bayern München73%
Werder Bremen11%
Draw18%
Bayern München71%
Werder Bremen11%
Draw16%
Bayern München73%
Werder Bremen8%
Draw12%
Bayern München80%
Werder Bremen12%
Draw18%
Bayern München70%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 73
Team strength
Werder BremenBayern München
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
56
AttackIn forecast
96
45
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenBayern München
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.76
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
2.71
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+1.05
57%
Scored inContext
100%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
13.05
ShotsContext
18.62
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.43
31%
On target shareContext
45%
8.15
Shots in the boxContext
12.95
59%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
20%
1.76
OffsidesContext
2.65
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.38
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.57
BlocksContext
3.29
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
63%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
470
PassesContext
694
388
Accurate passesContext
627
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.20
9.81
FoulsContext
9.33
10.05
Fouls sufferedContext
8.29
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
3.15
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
40%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
18.40
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
25%
On target shareContext
49%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
13.20
56%
Box shareContext
71%
5%
ConversionContext
19%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.78
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.90
BlocksContext
2.71
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
61%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
476
PassesContext
707
395
Accurate passesContext
640
83%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.18
10.40
FoulsContext
8.50
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,138 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel583 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 583 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,138 km | 1,224 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
27F. Agu
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
11J. Njinmah
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
18Cameron Puertas
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
27K. Laimer
3M. Kim
4J. Tah
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
42Lennart Karl
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bayern München+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Bayern München · Away
2.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-0
- Scored
- 3.40
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 6–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | W 3–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | W 5–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 H | W 8–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 60 · 0.95 per game | 51 of 60 · 2.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins0 draws6 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.43 – 3.43
Over 2.586%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 26 Sep 2025Bayern München4–0Werder Bremen
- 7 Feb 2025Bayern München3–0Werder Bremen
- 21 Sep 2024Werder Bremen0–5Bayern München
- 21 Jan 2024Bayern München0–1Werder Bremen
- 18 Aug 2023Werder Bremen0–4Bayern München
- 6 May 2023Werder Bremen1–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 3.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 4.67 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 100% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 76% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 62% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Werder Bremen | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 3.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 90% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.73 | 6.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.87 | 3.74 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 9.79 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 12/15 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 12/15 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 8/15 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.62 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.48 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Werder Bremen | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 6.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.63 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.40 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.75
Red cards0.16league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 39%
Fouls23.7league 20.9
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins48%league 45%
Werder Bremen10 with this referee
Record1-2-7
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds3
- D29 Nov 25H · 1.FC Köln1–12
- D10 May 25H · RB Leipzig0–01
- L3 Nov 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–44
- L21 Sep 24H · Bayern München0–50
- L2 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart0–20
Bayern München7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Oct 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–11
- W26 Apr 25H · FSV Mainz 053–02
- W21 Sep 24A · Werder Bremen5–03
- W12 May 24H · VfL Wolfsburg2–00
- D15 Apr 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen21 games · scored 22 · conceded 39
2
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
9
61-75
10
10
76-90
Bayern München21 games · scored 79 · conceded 19
6
3
0-15
13
3
16-30
15
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
12
2
61-75
25
5
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 34 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
11
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
