Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
15th · 28 pts · 29 played
WLWLL
3–1Full time
Hamburger SV
13th · 31 pts · 29 played
WDLDL
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 6 days of rest, Hamburger SV 5.9 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen57%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV21%
Werder Bremen46%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV27%
Werder Bremen56%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV21%
Werder Bremen49%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV28%
Werder Bremen55%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV22%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 27
Team strength
Werder BremenHamburger SV
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
56
AttackIn forecast
37
45
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenHamburger SV
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
62%
Scored inContext
66%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.86
ShotsContext
11.62
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
31%
On target shareContext
39%
8.32
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
62%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.14
Shots allowedContext
14.14
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.78
BlocksContext
3.68
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
64%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
475
PassesContext
387
393
Accurate passesContext
315
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.83
FoulsContext
11.66
9.79
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.36
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
9.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
41%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
67%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.10
Shots allowedContext
15.80
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.63
BlocksContext
4.00
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
67%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
506
PassesContext
359
423
Accurate passesContext
283
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.90
FoulsContext
10.40
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km1,067 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 540 km | 1,067 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
11J. Njinmah
19J. Milošević
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari
25J. Torunarigha
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
23A. Grønbæk
21N. Remberg
2W. Mikelbrencis
20Fábio Vieira
11R. Königsdörffer
9R. Glatzel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.79
Hamburger SV · Away
0.71points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-8
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–4 H | L 0–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Werder Bremen wins0 draws1 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2025Hamburger SV3–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.66 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 52% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 59% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.41 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.26 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 15/22 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.55 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 11/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 11.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.75
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+44%league 38%
Fouls21.9league 20.4
Penalties0.41league 0.37
Home wins37%league 44%
Werder Bremen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Dec 24H · Union Berlin4–12
Hamburger SV2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W7 Mar 26A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- W20 Sep 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen29 games · scored 32 · conceded 52
2
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
7
12
61-75
13
11
76-90
Hamburger SV29 games · scored 32 · conceded 45
2
4
0-15
4
9
16-30
8
8
31-45
7
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
10
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
