Bundesliga Gameweek 30 Sat, Apr 18 · 14:30 wohninvest WESERSTADION, Bremen
Werder Bremen 15th · 28 pts · 29 played
3–1Full time
Hamburger SV 13th · 31 pts · 29 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Werder Bremen57.0%fair odds 1.76
Draw21.9%fair odds 4.57
Hamburger SV21.2%fair odds 4.72
Expected goals2.09 – 1.22total 3.30
Likeliest score1–19.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Werder Bremen ↓ · Hamburger SV →0123456+
04.24.02.71.10.30.10.0
17.29.85.72.30.70.20.0
28.09.75.92.40.70.20.0
35.66.84.11.70.50.10.0
42.93.52.20.90.30.10.0
51.21.50.90.40.10.00.0
6+0.60.70.40.20.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Werder Bremen goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–19.8%10.19
  • 2–19.7%10.27
  • 2–08.0%12.48
  • 1–07.2%13.94
  • 3–16.8%14.75
  • 2–25.9%16.89
  • 1–25.7%17.65
  • 3–05.6%17.93
  • 0–04.2%24.01
  • 3–24.1%24.26

Winning margin

17.6% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 5.69
17.4% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 5.76
22.0% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 4.54
21.9% Draw fair 4.57
12.6% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 7.93
5.9% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 17.02
2.7% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 37.08

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+

Werder Bremen goals

12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+

Hamburger SV goals

30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Werder Bremen win 57.0% 55.2% +1.7 pp
Draw 21.9% 23.1% -1.2 pp
Hamburger SV win 21.2% 21.7% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 64.2% 59.5% +4.7 pp
Both teams score 62.1% 58.9% +3.2 pp
Expected goals Werder Bremen 2.09 1.94 +0.15
Expected goals Hamburger SV 1.22 1.15 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Werder Bremen win57.0%1.76
  • Draw21.9%4.57
  • Hamburger SV win21.2%4.72
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw78.8%1.27
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or Hamburger SV78.1%1.28
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw43.0%2.32
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen72.9%1.37
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV27.1%3.69

Goals

  • Over 0.595.8%1.04
  • Over 1.584.7%1.18
  • Over 2.564.2%1.56
  • Over 3.542.1%2.38
  • Over 4.523.8%4.20
  • Under 1.515.3%6.53
  • Under 2.535.8%2.79
  • Under 3.557.9%1.73

Both teams to score

  • Yes62.1%1.61
  • No37.9%2.64
  • Yes and over 2.552.3%1.91
  • Werder Bremen win and yes31.5%3.18
  • Draw and yes17.7%5.65
  • Hamburger SV win and yes13.0%7.71

Team goals

  • Werder Bremen over 0.587.6%1.14
  • Werder Bremen over 1.561.8%1.62
  • Werder Bremen over 2.534.7%2.88
  • Hamburger SV over 0.570.3%1.42
  • Hamburger SV over 1.534.3%2.92
  • Hamburger SV over 2.512.4%8.07
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet29.7%3.37
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet12.4%8.08
  • Werder Bremen win to nil25.5%3.92
  • Hamburger SV win to nil8.2%12.17

Handicap

  • Werder Bremen −1.534.9%2.86
  • Werder Bremen −2.517.6%5.69
  • Hamburger SV +1.565.1%1.54
  • Hamburger SV +2.582.4%1.21
  • Hamburger SV −1.58.6%11.67
  • Werder Bremen +1.591.4%1.09

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored262 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.558 Over 2.5 called right60.7% BTTS called right57.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3538.3%37.1%
40–50%8344.9%45.8%
50–60%6955.2%59.4%
60–70%4064.6%70.0%
70–80%2374.0%78.3%
80%+1286.6%83.3%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 215 of 262 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55090.5494
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.1%
Favourite won57.7%56.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 215 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 262 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.