Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 43). Werder Bremen usually keep the ball (47% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Werder Bremen had 6.2 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Werder Bremen51%
Draw25%
Union Berlin24%
Werder Bremen50%
Draw26%
Union Berlin24%
Werder Bremen51%
Draw25%
Union Berlin24%
Werder Bremen43%
Draw26%
Union Berlin30%
Werder Bremen50%
Draw25%
Union Berlin25%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 78
Team strength
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
56
AttackIn forecast
42
45
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenUnion Berlin
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
71%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.57
ShotsContext
12.14
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
41%
On target shareContext
32%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
65%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.86
Shots allowedContext
14.71
6.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.86
5.00
BlocksContext
4.17
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
60%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
445
PassesContext
268
362
Accurate passesContext
188
81%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.29
FoulsContext
13.57
9.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
41%
On target shareContext
33%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
69%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.11
17.60
Shots allowedContext
14.30
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.90
BlocksContext
3.44
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
460
PassesContext
304
377
Accurate passesContext
224
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.90
FoulsContext
12.20
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km996 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel315 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 996 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
44V. Boniface
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Union Berlin+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Union Berlin · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 1–4 A | W 4–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins1 draws3 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 3 May 2025Union Berlin2–2Werder Bremen
- 21 Dec 2024Werder Bremen4–1Union Berlin
- 16 Mar 2024Union Berlin2–1Werder Bremen
- 28 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–0Union Berlin
- 27 May 2023Union Berlin1–0Werder Bremen
- 25 Jan 2023Werder Bremen1–2Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.57 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 71% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.57 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 71% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 9.86 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 11.86 | 9.00 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 7/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.20 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 4.32
Red cards0.22league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 44%
Fouls22.7league 22.9
Penalties0.29league 0.41
Home wins55%league 40%
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Apr 25A · VfB Stuttgart2–12
- W20 Oct 24A · VfL Wolfsburg4–21
- L16 Mar 24A · Union Berlin1–25
Union Berlin10 with this referee
Record3-2-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- D1 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–03
- L28 Sep 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–11
- W16 Mar 24H · Werder Bremen2–13
- L3 Sep 23H · RB Leipzig0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen7 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
Union Berlin7 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 19
5
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
