West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Burnley were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 53). West Ham had 6 days of rest, Burnley 7 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
West Ham39%
Draw26%
Burnley35%
West Ham38%
Draw27%
Burnley35%
West Ham39%
Draw27%
Burnley35%
West Ham31%
Draw26%
Burnley42%
West Ham38%
Draw27%
Burnley35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Salisbury
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 75
Team strength
West Ham
Burnley
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
68
AttackIn forecast
27
64
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamBurnley
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.40
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
4.30
67%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
4.00
BlocksContext
4.70
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
56%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
396
PassesContext
334
321
Accurate passesContext
256
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.20
FoulsContext
9.60
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.40
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
4.30
67%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
4.00
BlocksContext
4.70
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
56%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
396
PassesContext
334
321
Accurate passesContext
256
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.20
FoulsContext
9.60
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km270 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 270 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
12E. Diouf
25J. Todibo
3M. Kilman
29A. Wan-Bissaka
10Lucas Paquetá
32F. Potts
18Mateus Fernandes
7C. Summerville
9C. Wilson
20J. Bowen
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
2K. Walker
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
11J. Anthony
8L. Ugochukwu
17L. Tchaouna
19Z. Flemming
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Burnley+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.60
Burnley · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 West Ham wins3 draws0 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 10 Mar 2024West Ham2–2Burnley
- 25 Nov 2023Burnley1–2West Ham
- 17 Apr 2022West Ham1–1Burnley
- 12 Dec 2021Burnley0–0West Ham
- 3 May 2021Burnley1–2West Ham
- 16 Jan 2021West Ham1–0Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| West Ham | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 9.10 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| West Ham | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 12.60 | 9.10 | 9.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Salisbury 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.58
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 40%
Fouls22.1league 21.7
Penalties0.27league 0.18
Home wins49%league 50%
West Ham4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L10 Mar 25H · Newcastle0–10
- D21 Jan 24A · Sheffield Utd2–23
- W7 Dec 23A · Tottenham2–13
- W12 Nov 23H · Nottingham Forest3–22
Burnley5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25H · Sunderland2–00
- W19 Oct 24A · Sheffield Wednesday2–02
- W17 Aug 24H · Cardiff5–02
- L27 Aug 23H · Aston Villa1–32
- W10 Apr 23H · Sheffield Utd2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
