West Ham vs Crystal Palace – 20 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:00 London Stadium, London

West Ham 18th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

1–2Full time

Crystal Palace 9th · 6 pts · 4 played DDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 54). Absences weigh more on Crystal Palace. West Ham had 6.9 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

West Ham31%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace43%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.55

West Ham30%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

West Ham30%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace44%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.56

West Ham24%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace51%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.74

West Ham30%

Draw27%

Crystal Palace43%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.49

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeTony Harrington

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 72

Team strength

West Ham

Crystal Palace

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

68 AttackIn forecast 64

64 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

West Ham

Crystal Palace

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.25

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.55

50% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 75%

10.75 ShotsContext 9.75

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

47% On target shareContext 46%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

76% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 10%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

11.75 Shots allowedContext 11.75

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

3.00 BlocksContext 3.25

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

45% Save rateContext 86%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

409 PassesContext 370

341 Accurate passesContext 298

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.63 Team ratingContext 7.03

7.75 FoulsContext 11.75

9.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

0.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.10 ShotsContext 13.70

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

40% On target shareContext 39%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

74% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.70 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.78 BlocksContext 3.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

61% Save rateContext 78%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

456 PassesContext 392

388 Accurate passesContext 311

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.06

10.80 FoulsContext 10.10

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

West Ham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	West Ham	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

West Ham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

23A. Areola(G)

12E. Diouf 3M. Kilman 15K. Mavropanos 2K. Walker-Peters

18Mateus Fernandes 8J. Ward-Prowse 10Lucas Paquetá

7C. Summerville 9C. Wilson 20J. Bowen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 19W. Hughes 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada

14J. Mateta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

West Ham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

West Ham+0.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

West Ham · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 4.00

Crystal Palace · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	West Ham	Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Chelsea	L 1–5 H	D 0–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 West Ham wins3 draws4 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.80 – 2.10 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

18 Jan 2025West Ham0–2Crystal Palace
24 Aug 2024Crystal Palace0–2West Ham
21 Apr 2024Crystal Palace5–2West Ham
3 Dec 2023West Ham1–1Crystal Palace
29 Apr 2023Crystal Palace4–3West Ham
6 Nov 2022West Ham1–2Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	West Ham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.75	0.25
Match goals	3.75	1.25	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	25%	57%
Clean sheets	25%	75%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	4	4

	West Ham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.75	0.25
Match goals	3.75	1.25	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	25%	25%	57%
Clean sheets	25%	75%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	West Ham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	2.25
Corners conceded	8.00	6.75
Match total	13.75	9.00	9.53
Over 8.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	0.50	2.50
Opponent cards	0.50	2.00
Match total	1.00	4.50	3.60
Over 3.5	0% 0/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	75% 3/4

	West Ham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	4.25
Corners conceded	7.00	4.88
Match total	11.44	9.13	9.53
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.00	2.60
Match total	2.50	4.20	3.60
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tony Harrington 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.54

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+28%league 41%

Fouls21.3league 22.5

Penalties0.25league 0.29

Home wins46%league 51%

West Ham2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against2 · 1

L17 Aug 24H · Aston Villa1–21
W6 Apr 24A · Wolves2–12

Crystal Palace4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

L26 Jan 25H · Brentford1–22
D14 Sep 24H · Leicester2–20
W30 Jan 24H · Sheffield Utd3–21
L20 Apr 22A · Newcastle0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.