Willem II vs Groningen

Eredivisie Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played DDWWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel210 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Willem II—%

Draw—%

Groningen—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Tilburg)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Willem II

Groningen

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

10 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

10 AttackIn forecast 41

9 DefenceIn forecast 21

8 Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Willem II

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Willem II

Groningen

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.44

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.11

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.21

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

78% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.67 ShotsContext 14.78

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.78

24% On target shareContext 39%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.38

68% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 15.33

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

4.33 BlocksContext 4.13

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

61% Save rateContext 60%

40% PossessionIn forecast 51%

356 PassesContext 434

276 Accurate passesContext 355

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.78 FoulsContext 8.89

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.11

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.67 ShotsContext 13.80

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

24% On target shareContext 38%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

68% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 15.00

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

4.33 BlocksContext 4.00

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

61% Save rateContext 60%

40% PossessionIn forecast 49%

356 PassesContext 425

276 Accurate passesContext 345

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.78 FoulsContext 9.60

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Willem II DLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km332 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

Groningen DDWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel210 km169 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Willem II	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	210 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	332 km	169 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1E. Vaessen(G)

33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders

24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge

11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff

9B. Willumsson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Willem II Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Groningen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Willem II · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.50

Groningen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Willem II	Groningen
Utrecht	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 H	L 2–3 H
Ajax	L 1–5 A	L 2–5 H
Excelsior	L 0–3 H	W 5–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 1–4 A	D 1–1 A
Points	0 of 15 · 0.00 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Willem II wins0 draws2 Groningen wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

15 Feb 2025Willem II1–3Groningen
30 Nov 2024Groningen2–0Willem II

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Willem II	Groningen
Scored per game	1.00	2.44
Conceded per game	2.89	2.11
Match goals	3.89	4.56
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	78%	89%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	78%	89%
Clean sheets	0%	11%
Failed to score	22%	0%
Games	9	9

	Willem II	Groningen
Scored per game	1.00	2.40
Conceded per game	2.89	2.00
Match goals	3.89	4.40
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	78%	90%
Over 3.5	67%	60%
Both teams scored	78%	90%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	22%	0%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Willem II	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.89
Corners conceded	6.56	4.56
Match total	10.34	9.45	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.00
Opponent cards	1.11	1.44
Match total	2.44	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9

	Willem II	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.89
Corners conceded	6.56	4.56
Match total	10.34	9.45	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.30
Opponent cards	1.40	1.40
Match total	2.70	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.