Eredivisie Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel79 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Cambuur—%
Draw—%
PEC Zwolle—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leeuwarden)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Cambuur and PEC Zwolle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CambuurPEC Zwolle
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
22 AttackIn forecast 17
23 DefenceIn forecast 14
51 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cambuur

Attack—
Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CambuurPEC Zwolle
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
89% Scored inContext 56%
22% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.89 ShotsContext 12.00
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
37% On target shareContext 35%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
71% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.78 Shots allowedContext 19.44
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78
4.00 BlocksContext 5.78
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
63% Save rateContext 64%
46% PossessionIn forecast 41%
369 PassesContext 348
295 Accurate passesContext 265
80% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.59
12.11 FoulsContext 11.22
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.20
2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
90% Scored inContext 50%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.10 ShotsContext 11.50
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
35% On target shareContext 34%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
69% Box shareContext 58%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.11 OffsidesContext 2.00
13.80 Shots allowedContext 19.70
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90
3.70 BlocksContext 5.60
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
64% Save rateContext 65%
49% PossessionIn forecast 42%
395 PassesContext 355
317 Accurate passesContext 271
80% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.60
12.40 FoulsContext 11.20
14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cambuur
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel79 km58 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
  • D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Cambuur PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km79 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways394 km58 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah
8N. Souren 33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka
13N. Binder
PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas
11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal
17S. van Hooijdonk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Cambuur Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PEC Zwolle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Cambuur · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-1-3
Scored
1.60
Conceded
3.00
PEC Zwolle · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentCambuurPEC Zwolle
NEC Nijmegen W 3–0 H L 1–3 H
Twente L 1–4 H L 1–3 A
Feyenoord L 2–5 H L 0–7 H
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Cambuur wins0 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%
  • 11 Oct 2026PEC Zwolle0–1Cambuur

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CambuurPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 1.441.11
Conceded per game 2.332.44
Match goals 3.783.56
Over 1.5 89%89%
Over 2.5 78%67%
Over 3.5 67%56%
Both teams scored 67%44%
Clean sheets 22%11%
Failed to score 11%44%
Games99
CambuurPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 1.441.00
Conceded per game 2.332.40
Match goals 3.783.40
Over 1.5 89%90%
Over 2.5 78%60%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 67%40%
Clean sheets 22%10%
Failed to score 11%50%
Games910

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CambuurPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won3.784.33
Corners conceded5.787.22
Match total9.5611.5510.39
Over 8.578% 7/989% 8/9
Over 9.544% 4/978% 7/9
Over 10.533% 3/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.781.44
Opponent cards1.781.00
Match total3.562.442.77
Over 3.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 4.533% 3/922% 2/9
CambuurPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.00
Corners conceded5.307.70
Match total10.1011.7010.39
Over 8.580% 8/1090% 9/10
Over 9.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 10.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.001.30
Opponent cards2.400.90
Match total4.402.202.77
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Cambuur9 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 5 76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 5 76-90
Cambuur10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 6 76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax Feyenoord Feb 2816:00 Willem II Groningen Feb 2816:00 Excelsior Heerenveen Feb 2816:00 ADO Den Haag Twente Feb 2816:00 Fortuna Sittard Utrecht Feb 2816:00 NEC Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar Feb 2816:00 Cambuur PEC Zwolle Feb 2816:00 Sparta Rotterdam PSV Eindhoven Feb 2816:00 Telstar GO Ahead Eagles Feb 2816:00