Willem II vs Telstar

Eredivisie Gameweek 32 Sun, May 9 · 16:00 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel105 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Willem II—%

Draw—%

Telstar—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Tilburg)

Forecast from 24 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Willem II 78% Both teams scored Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Willem II 4 Losses in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Willem II

Telstar

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

10 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

10 AttackIn forecast 24

9 DefenceIn forecast 13

8 Form indexContext 11

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Willem II

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Willem II

Telstar

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.40

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

78% Scored inContext 56%

0% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.67 ShotsContext 12.00

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

24% On target shareContext 26%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

68% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

20.33 Shots allowedContext 16.78

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67

4.33 BlocksContext 5.25

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.13

61% Save rateContext 71%

40% PossessionIn forecast 45%

356 PassesContext 400

276 Accurate passesContext 323

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.78 FoulsContext 10.44

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.67 ShotsContext 11.50

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

24% On target shareContext 26%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

68% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

20.33 Shots allowedContext 16.60

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

4.33 BlocksContext 5.33

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.33

61% Save rateContext 73%

40% PossessionIn forecast 46%

356 PassesContext 394

276 Accurate passesContext 314

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.72

9.78 FoulsContext 11.20

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Willem II DLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km235 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

Telstar LDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel105 km196 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Willem II	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	235 km	196 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

Telstar Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct

1R. Koeman(G)

43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders

17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman

27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Willem II Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Telstar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Willem II · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.50

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Willem II	Telstar
Sparta Rotterdam	L 2–3 A	L 1–3 H
Ajax	L 1–5 A	L 0–4 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Heerenveen	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 H	W 2–1 A
Points	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Willem II	Telstar
Scored per game	1.00	1.11
Conceded per game	2.89	2.00
Match goals	3.89	3.11
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	78%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	78%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	11%
Failed to score	22%	44%
Games	9	9

	Willem II	Telstar
Scored per game	1.00	1.20
Conceded per game	2.89	1.90
Match goals	3.89	3.10
Over 1.5	89%	70%
Over 2.5	78%	70%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	78%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	22%	40%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Willem II	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.13
Corners conceded	6.56	6.75
Match total	10.34	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.56
Opponent cards	1.11	1.78
Match total	2.44	3.34	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9

	Willem II	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.13
Corners conceded	6.56	6.75
Match total	10.34	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	2.70	3.40	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.