ADO Den Haag
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
ADO Den Haag—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)
Forecast from 24 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for ADO Den Haag and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
ADO Den Haag
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
ADO Den Haag
−1.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against2.20
-
Trend
NEC Nijmegen
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Goals conceded away per match
Last 7 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
NEC Nijmegen
+0.55
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.94xG against1.39
-
Trend
ADO Den Haag
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
NEC Nijmegen
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
ADO Den Haag
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
ADO Den Haag
−1.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against2.20
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.0
Goals conceded away per match
Last 7 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
NEC Nijmegen
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ADO Den HaagNEC Nijmegen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
15
AttackIn forecast
37
18
DefenceIn forecast
33
24
Form indexContext
18
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ADO Den HaagNEC Nijmegen
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
2.16
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
78%
Scored inContext
89%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.22
ShotsContext
15.11
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
32%
On target shareContext
28%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
58%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.57
17.33
Shots allowedContext
11.56
6.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.78
BlocksContext
3.11
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
411
PassesContext
488
334
Accurate passesContext
401
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.59
14.00
FoulsContext
11.33
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
12.11
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.84
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
58%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.43
16.30
Shots allowedContext
12.70
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.60
BlocksContext
2.80
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
67%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
417
PassesContext
442
338
Accurate passesContext
358
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.44
13.70
FoulsContext
11.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ADO Den Haag
LLDDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
NEC Nijmegen
LDDDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ADO Den Haag |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 165 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
ADO Den Haag
Last XI · not confirmed
1K. Nikiéma(G)
18S. Sylla
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
22L. Wilhelm
5J. Jensen-Abbew
11E. Rottier
25J. Kilo
8J. Žambůrek
9J. Bal
46Y. Eduardo
NEC Nijmegen
Last XI · not confirmed
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
22A. Kaplan
21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro
18D. Geiger
6D. Nejašmić
34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff
20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ADO Den Haag
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
ADO Den Haag · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | ADO Den Haag | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cambuur | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| ADO Den Haag | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.44 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 89% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| ADO Den Haag | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 30% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ADO Den Haag | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 8.63 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.11 | 3.11 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/9 | |
| ADO Den Haag | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 7.88 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
ADO Den Haag9 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
ADO Den Haag10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
1
9
61-75
3
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
