Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel113 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Twente—%
Draw—%
Groningen—%
Weather (Enschede)
Forecast from 24 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Twente and Groningen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Twente
+0.89
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.63xG against0.74
-
Trend
Groningen
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Groningen
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Groningen
−0.53
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.62xG against2.15
-
Trend
Twente
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Twente
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Twente
+0.89
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.63xG against0.74
-
Trend
Groningen
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Groningen
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Groningen
9
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Trend
Twente
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Twente
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Team strength
TwenteGroningen
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
41
AttackIn forecast
41
49
DefenceIn forecast
21
58
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteGroningen
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.44
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.11
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.21
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
89%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
20.56
ShotsContext
14.78
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.78
34%
On target shareContext
39%
13.44
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
65%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.11
Shots allowedContext
15.33
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
4.57
BlocksContext
4.13
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
69%
Save rateContext
60%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
535
PassesContext
434
462
Accurate passesContext
355
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.33
FoulsContext
8.89
8.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.11
0.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
20.56
ShotsContext
13.80
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
34%
On target shareContext
38%
13.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
65%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.11
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
4.57
BlocksContext
4.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
60%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
535
PassesContext
425
462
Accurate passesContext
345
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.33
FoulsContext
9.60
8.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
WWWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Groningen
DDWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km503 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 337 km | 503 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Last XI · not confirmed
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
Groningen
Last XI · not confirmed
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement
8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Groningen
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 H | L 1–5 A |
| ADO Den Haag | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Twente wins3 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 6 Sep 2026Groningen2–2Twente
- 22 Feb 2026Twente2–1Groningen
- 2 Nov 2025Groningen1–1Twente
- 1 Mar 2025Groningen1–1Twente
- 15 Dec 2024Twente2–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 2.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 2.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.56 | |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 89% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 89% | |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Twente | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.22 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 9.45 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.78 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 2.44 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% 2/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Twente | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.22 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 9.45 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
