Wolves vs Arsenal – 18 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 31 Wed, Feb 18 · 20:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 9 pts · 26 played DLLLD

2–2Full time

Arsenal 1st · 57 pts · 26 played DLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Wolves had 7 days of rest, Arsenal 6 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Wolves10%

Draw17%

Arsenal73%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.40

Wolves9%

Draw17%

Arsenal74%

Expected goals 0.74 – 2.43

Wolves10%

Draw17%

Arsenal73%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.40

Wolves7%

Draw14%

Arsenal79%

Expected goals 0.70 – 2.69

Wolves11%

Draw19%

Arsenal71%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.23

Over 2.5 62% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereePaul Tierney

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 117

Team strength

Wolves

Arsenal

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

41 AttackIn forecast 86

46 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Arsenal

0.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.92

1.85 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.69

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

46% Scored inContext 88%

12% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.31 ShotsContext 14.62

3.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.92

34% On target shareContext 34%

6.08 Shots in the boxContext 11.08

62% Box shareContext 75%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.92 Shots allowedContext 7.77

4.84 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

4.68 BlocksContext 3.09

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.95

64% Save rateContext 73%

44% PossessionIn forecast 57%

378 PassesContext 481

303 Accurate passesContext 409

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.04

13.77 FoulsContext 10.12

10.35 Fouls sufferedContext 10.46

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.80 ShotsContext 14.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

39% On target shareContext 36%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

59% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.50 Shots allowedContext 9.20

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.88

4.00 BlocksContext 3.67

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

71% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 56%

392 PassesContext 451

324 Accurate passesContext 379

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.20 FoulsContext 10.90

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km154 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel182 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb	6Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	154 km	26 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 7André 47A. Gomes 38J. Tchatchoua

36Mateus Mané 27J. Bellegarde

9A. Armstrong

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

11Gabriel Martinelli 7B. Saka 20C. Madueke

14V. Gyökeres

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Arsenal-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.38points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-10
Scored: 0.85
Conceded: 2.15

Arsenal · Away 1.92points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.46
Conceded: 0.77

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Arsenal
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Chelsea	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	W 3–2 A
Manchester City	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	W 1–0 A
West Ham	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Brentford	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	W 1–0 A
Burnley	L 2–3 H	W 2–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	W 4–1 H
Leeds	L 1–3 H	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H
Points	9 of 75 · 0.36 per game	54 of 75 · 2.16 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Wolves wins0 draws9 Arsenal wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

13 Dec 2025Arsenal2–1Wolves
25 Jan 2025Wolves0–1Arsenal
17 Aug 2024Arsenal2–0Wolves
20 Apr 2024Wolves0–2Arsenal
2 Dec 2023Arsenal2–1Wolves
28 May 2023Arsenal5–0Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.62	1.92
Conceded per game	1.85	0.69
Match goals	2.46	2.62	3.19
Over 1.5	77%	73%
Over 2.5	42%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	23%	27%
Both teams scored	42%	46%	50%
Clean sheets	12%	50%
Failed to score	54%	12%
Games	26	26

	Wolves	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	2.00
Conceded per game	1.30	0.80
Match goals	2.00	2.80	3.19
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	6.08
Corners conceded	6.33	3.38
Match total	9.83	9.46	9.98
Over 8.5	75% 18/24	54% 13/24
Over 9.5	67% 16/24	50% 12/24
Over 10.5	42% 10/24	46% 11/24
Cards
Cards	2.19	1.38
Opponent cards	1.46	1.77
Match total	3.65	3.15	3.87
Over 3.5	58% 15/26	42% 11/26
Over 4.5	38% 10/26	19% 5/26

	Wolves	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	7.38
Corners conceded	5.40	4.38
Match total	10.30	11.76	9.98
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	88% 7/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.30	1.60
Match total	3.20	3.10	3.87
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Paul Tierney 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.73

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls22.2league 21.3

Penalties0.18league 0.22

Home wins38%league 43%

Wolves9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

L20 Apr 24H · Arsenal0–23
L30 Mar 24A · Aston Villa0–24
W21 Oct 23A · Bournemouth2–16
W15 Apr 23H · Brentford2–01
L1 Mar 23A · Liverpool0–23

Arsenal12 with this referee

Record5-3-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

W12 May 24A · Manchester United1–02
W20 Apr 24A · Wolves2–02
W24 Feb 24H · Newcastle4–11
W20 Jan 24H · Crystal Palace5–00
D26 Aug 23H · Fulham2–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.