Wolves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Wolves10.0%fair odds 10.04
Draw17.3%fair odds 5.78
Arsenal72.7%fair odds 1.37
Expected goals0.79 – 2.40total 3.19
Likeliest score0–211.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Wolves ↓ · Arsenal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Wolves goals, columns Arsenal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.9%8.40
- 0–39.5%10.50
- 0–19.5%10.51
- 1–29.4%10.69
- 1–18.2%12.18
- 1–37.5%13.36
- 0–45.7%17.50
- 0–04.6%21.98
- 1–44.5%22.27
- 2–23.7%27.21
Winning margin
0.6%
Wolves by 3+
fair 157.35
2.3%
Wolves by 2
fair 43.60
7.0%
Wolves by 1
fair 14.23
17.3%
Draw
fair 5.78
22.3%
Arsenal by 1
fair 4.48
21.4%
Arsenal by 2
fair 4.67
29.0%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 3.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Wolves goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
Arsenal goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 10.0% | 10.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 17.3% | 18.8% | -1.5 pp |
| Arsenal win | 72.7% | 70.6% | +2.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 57.2% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 47.5% | +2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Wolves | 0.79 | 0.75 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 2.40 | 2.23 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Wolves win10.0%10.04
- Draw17.3%5.78
- Arsenal win72.7%1.37
- Double chance Wolves or draw27.3%3.67
- Double chance Wolves or Arsenal82.7%1.21
- Double chance Arsenal or draw90.0%1.11
- Draw no bet Wolves12.0%8.30
- Draw no bet Arsenal88.0%1.14
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.1%1.20
- Over 2.561.7%1.62
- Over 3.539.4%2.54
- Over 4.521.7%4.61
- Under 1.516.9%5.92
- Under 2.538.3%2.61
- Under 3.560.6%1.65
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.00
- No50.1%2.00
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Wolves win and yes5.4%18.41
- Draw and yes12.8%7.84
- Arsenal win and yes31.7%3.15
Team goals
- Wolves over 0.554.4%1.84
- Wolves over 1.518.6%5.38
- Wolves over 2.54.5%22.04
- Arsenal over 0.590.9%1.10
- Arsenal over 1.569.1%1.45
- Arsenal over 2.543.0%2.32
- Wolves clean sheet9.1%11.02
- Arsenal clean sheet45.6%2.19
- Wolves win to nil4.5%22.10
- Arsenal win to nil41.0%2.44
Handicap
- Wolves −1.52.9%34.14
- Wolves −2.50.6%157.35
- Arsenal +1.597.1%1.03
- Arsenal +2.599.4%1.01
- Arsenal −1.550.4%1.98
- Wolves +1.549.6%2.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored260
Favourite won49.6%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right54.2%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.2% | 40.5% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 44.9% | 44.2% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 54.6% | 51.4% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.2% | 57.6% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.4% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 230 of 260 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6193 | 0.6062 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.3% | 40.1% |
| Favourite won | 49.1% | 50.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 230 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 260 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.