Wolves vs Bournemouth – 31 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 8 pts · 23 played DWDDL

0–2Full time

Bournemouth 13th · 30 pts · 23 played DLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Bournemouth. Wolves had 7 days of rest, Bournemouth 6.9 and had to travel 208 km.

Away travel208 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Wolves29%

Draw26%

Bournemouth46%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.60

Wolves28%

Draw26%

Bournemouth46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Wolves27%

Draw25%

Bournemouth48%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.66

Wolves22%

Draw24%

Bournemouth53%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.79

Wolves29%

Draw26%

Bournemouth45%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.55

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Wolves

Bournemouth

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

41 AttackIn forecast 83

46 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Bournemouth

0.65 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.87

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

48% Scored inContext 83%

9% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.00 ShotsContext 13.57

3.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.83

34% On target shareContext 36%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.59

63% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.18

13.17 Shots allowedContext 12.65

4.59 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.65

4.58 BlocksContext 3.96

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

62% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

378 PassesContext 400

303 Accurate passesContext 318

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.13 FoulsContext 12.30

10.09 Fouls sufferedContext 10.26

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.39

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 2.00

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.30 ShotsContext 15.10

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

38% On target shareContext 38%

6.88 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

59% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.40

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.71 BlocksContext 5.00

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

61% Save rateContext 60%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

371 PassesContext 343

300 Accurate passesContext 254

81% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.30 FoulsContext 12.40

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel208 km255 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	208 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	200 km	255 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1José Sá(G)

12E. Agbadou 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 36Mateus Mané 7André 8João Gomes 21R. Gomes

11H. Hwang 14T. Arokodare

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 15A. Smith

4L. Cook 8A. Scott

21A. Adli 22E. Kroupi 20Álex Jiménez

9Evanilson

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+1.6 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Bournemouth-2.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.45points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-8
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 2.09

Bournemouth · Away 0.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-5
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 2.73

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Bournemouth
Manchester City	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H	L 1–3 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Everton	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H	L 0–1 H
West Ham	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 H
Manchester United	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H	D 4–4 A
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A
Brentford	L 0–2 H	L 1–4 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 A	L 2–3 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 A
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 H	D 3–3 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Fulham	L 0–3 A	W 3–1 H
Burnley	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 A
Brighton	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Leeds	L 1–3 H	D 2–2 A
Points	8 of 66 · 0.36 per game	27 of 66 · 1.23 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Wolves wins1 draws4 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game0.71 – 1.14 Over 2.529% Both scored29% Clean sheets29% · 57%

23 Aug 2025Bournemouth1–0Wolves
22 Feb 2025Bournemouth0–1Wolves
30 Nov 2024Wolves2–4Bournemouth
24 Apr 2024Wolves0–1Bournemouth
21 Oct 2023Bournemouth1–2Wolves
18 Feb 2023Wolves0–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	0.65	1.65
Conceded per game	1.87	1.87
Match goals	2.52	3.52	2.82
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	43%	65%	54%
Over 3.5	22%	61%
Both teams scored	43%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	9%	22%
Failed to score	52%	17%
Games	23	23

	Wolves	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.30	3.70	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	3.52	5.48
Corners conceded	6.38	5.71
Match total	9.90	11.19	9.94
Over 8.5	76% 16/21	76% 16/21
Over 9.5	67% 14/21	67% 14/21
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	57% 12/21
Cards
Cards	2.22	2.43
Opponent cards	1.48	2.04
Match total	3.70	4.47	3.84
Over 3.5	61% 14/23	70% 16/23
Over 4.5	39% 9/23	43% 10/23

	Wolves	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	5.67
Corners conceded	5.44	7.00
Match total	10.22	12.67	9.94
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.70	3.80	3.84
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.71

Red cards0.14league 0.10

Cards 5+34%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.3

Penalties0.24league 0.20

Home wins42%league 45%

Wolves13 with this referee

Record3-2-8 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L30 Aug 25H · Everton2–30
L10 May 25H · Brighton0–21
L25 Jan 25H · Arsenal0–12
D26 Oct 24A · Brighton2–23
L16 Sep 23H · Liverpool1–31

Bournemouth8 with this referee

Record4-3-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 2

D6 Dec 25H · Chelsea0–00
D27 Sep 25A · Leeds2–22
W14 Apr 25H · Fulham1–03
L25 Feb 25A · Brighton1–21
W2 Nov 24H · Manchester City2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.