Wolves vs Crystal Palace – 22 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands

Wolves 20th · 2 pts · 11 played DLLLL

0–2Full time

Crystal Palace 10th · 17 pts · 11 played LDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 44). Wolves had 13.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 13 and had to travel 182 km.

Away travel182 kmRest days13.8 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Wolves24%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace51%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.73

Wolves24%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

Wolves24%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace51%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.72

Wolves19%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace58%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.93

Wolves24%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 194

Team strength

Wolves

Crystal Palace

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

41 AttackIn forecast 64

46 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Wolves

Crystal Palace

0.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

2.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.82

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

45% Scored inContext 64%

0% Clean sheetsContext 45%

9.55 ShotsContext 12.27

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.45

33% On target shareContext 36%

6.09 Shots in the boxContext 8.64

62% Box shareContext 71%

7% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.78

13.27 Shots allowedContext 10.91

4.73 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.50 BlocksContext 2.90

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

60% Save rateContext 74%

47% PossessionIn forecast 42%

404 PassesContext 357

325 Accurate passesContext 275

81% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.65 Team ratingContext 7.03

13.45 FoulsContext 10.36

9.45 Fouls sufferedContext 10.64

1.82 Yellow cardsContext 1.73

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 2.01

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

50% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.60 ShotsContext 14.20

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

33% On target shareContext 32%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

61% Box shareContext 73%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.10 Shots allowedContext 9.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.56 BlocksContext 2.50

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

60% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

405 PassesContext 373

325 Accurate passesContext 287

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.68 Team ratingContext 7.01

13.50 FoulsContext 11.00

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Wolves

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel182 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Wolves	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.8Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Nov	13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	182 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Wolves Confirmed XI

5-3-2

31S. Johnstone(G)

6D. Møller Wolfe 24Toti Gomes 37L. Krejčí 12E. Agbadou 38J. Tchatchoua

5M. Munetsi 7André 8João Gomes

14T. Arokodare 9J. Strand Larsen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 14J. Mateta 7I. Sarr

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Wolves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Wolves+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Crystal Palace+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Wolves · Home 0.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-4
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 2.80

Crystal Palace · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Wolves	Crystal Palace
Chelsea	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Brighton	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Everton	L 2–3 H	L 1–2 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 H
Points	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Wolves wins1 draws7 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.90 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 30%

20 May 2025Crystal Palace4–2Wolves
2 Nov 2024Wolves2–2Crystal Palace
11 May 2024Wolves1–3Crystal Palace
3 Sep 2023Crystal Palace3–2Wolves
25 Apr 2023Wolves2–0Crystal Palace
18 Oct 2022Crystal Palace2–1Wolves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Wolves	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	0.64	1.27
Conceded per game	2.27	0.82
Match goals	2.91	2.09	2.85
Over 1.5	82%	64%
Over 2.5	55%	45%	54%
Over 3.5	36%	9%
Both teams scored	45%	45%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	45%
Failed to score	55%	36%
Games	11	11

	Wolves	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.40
Conceded per game	2.10	0.90
Match goals	2.80	2.30	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Wolves	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	3.82
Corners conceded	6.70	5.91
Match total	9.90	9.73	9.92
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	55% 6/11
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	55% 6/11
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	55% 6/11
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.73
Opponent cards	1.45	2.45
Match total	3.45	4.18	3.73
Over 3.5	45% 5/11	73% 8/11
Over 4.5	45% 5/11	64% 7/11

	Wolves	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	4.60
Corners conceded	6.89	4.30
Match total	10.00	8.90	9.92
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.60
Opponent cards	1.40	2.40
Match total	3.50	4.00	3.73
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 194 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.63

Red cards0.15league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 40%

Fouls21.0league 22.0

Penalties0.28league 0.18

Home wins35%league 52%

Wolves13 with this referee

Record3-3-7 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L20 Sep 25H · Leeds1–31
W13 Apr 25H · Tottenham4–21
W22 Dec 24A · Leicester3–00
D2 Nov 24H · Crystal Palace2–21
L28 Sep 24H · Liverpool1–22

Crystal Palace10 with this referee

Record1-4-5 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D24 Aug 25H · Nottingham Forest1–13
W5 Apr 25H · Brighton2–14
L15 Feb 25H · Everton1–20
D2 Nov 24A · Wolves2–22
L5 Aug 22H · Arsenal0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.