1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 11 pts · 15 played
LWWLL
2–2Full time
1.FC Köln
11th · 16 pts · 15 played
LDDLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
1.FC Köln were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 19.9 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 21 and had to travel 340 km.
Away travel340 kmRest days19.9 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
1. FC Heidenheim38%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln36%
1. FC Heidenheim38%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln35%
1. FC Heidenheim38%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln36%
1. FC Heidenheim31%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln43%
1. FC Heidenheim38%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 62
Team strength
1. FC Heidenheim1.FC Köln
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
48
AttackIn forecast
36
39
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC Heidenheim1.FC Köln
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
2.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.33
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
37%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.36
64%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.33
Shots allowedContext
13.73
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
3.87
BlocksContext
4.27
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
58%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
355
PassesContext
418
278
Accurate passesContext
347
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.27
FoulsContext
8.73
10.47
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.10
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
39%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
66%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.50
BlocksContext
3.80
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
51%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
371
PassesContext
434
291
Accurate passesContext
360
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.30
FoulsContext
7.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest19.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel340 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 340 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
30N. Dorsch
16J. Niehues
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
31S. Conteh
18M. Pieringer
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
22J. Simpson-Pusey
6E. Martel
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
8D. Huseinbašić
5T. Krauß
29J. Thielmann
16J. Kamiński
9R. Ache
40Fynn Schenten
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.13
1.FC Köln · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 11 of 42 · 0.79 per game | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws0 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 20241. FC Heidenheim4–11.FC Köln
- 13 Jan 20241.FC Köln1–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.27 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 3.07 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 10.50 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.87 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.78 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.20 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.88
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+47%league 41%
Fouls23.7league 21.2
Penalties0.35league 0.32
Home wins50%league 44%
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L13 Sep 24A · Borussia Dortmund2–42
- W6 Apr 24H · Bayern München3–22
- W10 Feb 24A · Werder Bremen2–12
1.FC Köln7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Apr 23A · FC Augsburg3–14
- W21 Jan 23H · Werder Bremen7–10
- W7 Aug 22H · FC Schalke 043–10
- L14 May 22A · VfB Stuttgart1–24
- W30 Apr 22A · FC Augsburg4–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim15 games · scored 13 · conceded 34
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
1.FC Köln15 games · scored 22 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
