1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 14 pts · 24 played
LLLDL
2–4Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 46 pts · 24 played
WLWDL
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 7 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim58%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Draw25%
1899 Hoffenheim54%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw21%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
Draw18%
1899 Hoffenheim67%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 62
Team strength
1. FC Heidenheim1899 Hoffenheim
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
48
AttackIn forecast
46
39
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC Heidenheim1899 Hoffenheim
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.04
2.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
58%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.46
ShotsContext
13.50
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.04
29%
On target shareContext
37%
7.77
Shots in the boxContext
9.61
66%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.32
15.08
Shots allowedContext
12.54
5.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
3.83
BlocksContext
3.61
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
60%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
356
PassesContext
461
276
Accurate passesContext
372
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.00
FoulsContext
13.38
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
50%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.30
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
25%
On target shareContext
40%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
71%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.50
Shots allowedContext
13.40
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.10
BlocksContext
3.56
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
349
PassesContext
458
266
Accurate passesContext
367
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.40
FoulsContext
12.10
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km996 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km464 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 996 km | 464 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
20L. Kerber
3J. Schöppner
30N. Dorsch
17M. Honsak
18M. Pieringer
11B. Zivzivadze
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
27A. Kramarić
22A. Prass
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim-1.2 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+2.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 2.25
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | W 5–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 14 of 69 · 0.61 per game | 43 of 69 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 1. FC Heidenheim wins3 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 25 Oct 20251899 Hoffenheim3–11. FC Heidenheim
- 9 Mar 20251899 Hoffenheim1–11. FC Heidenheim
- 27 Oct 20241. FC Heidenheim0–01899 Hoffenheim
- 27 Jan 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11. FC Heidenheim
- 26 Aug 20231. FC Heidenheim2–31899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 2.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.21 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 3.33 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 63% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.77 | 5.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 10.54 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 9/22 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.59 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 8/24 | 21% 5/24 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 10.60 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 3.76
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 20.7
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins47%league 47%
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W11 Jan 25H · Union Berlin2–00
- L28 Oct 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–23
- L26 Aug 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–31
1899 Hoffenheim6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- L20 Sep 25H · Bayern München1–41
- L5 Apr 25A · RB Leipzig1–34
- L17 Feb 24H · Union Berlin0–13
- W26 Aug 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–25
- L21 Jan 23A · Union Berlin1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim24 games · scored 22 · conceded 53
1
3
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
13
31-45
5
10
46-60
3
9
61-75
6
11
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim24 games · scored 49 · conceded 31
4
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
14
5
31-45
12
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
61-75
1
7
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
