1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 14 pts · 26 played
LDLLL
3–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 45 pts · 26 played
LDWDD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim14%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen66%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen66%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen66%
1. FC Heidenheim10%
Draw17%
Bayer Leverkusen73%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen64%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.54
- Matches 13
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimBayer Leverkusen
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
48
AttackIn forecast
87
39
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimBayer Leverkusen
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
2.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
58%
Scored inContext
85%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.31
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.04
66%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.65
5.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.80
BlocksContext
3.04
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
60%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
353
PassesContext
604
273
Accurate passesContext
535
77%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.81
FoulsContext
8.88
10.15
Fouls sufferedContext
10.65
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.50
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
24%
On target shareContext
32%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
68%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.90
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.56
BlocksContext
3.20
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
61%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
337
PassesContext
554
253
Accurate passesContext
479
75%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.20
FoulsContext
8.20
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km384 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel346 km686 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 384 km | 686 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
20L. Kerber
10C. Conteh
11B. Zivzivadze
8E. Dinkçi
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
20Álex Grimaldo
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
19E. Poku
10M. Tillman
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
0.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 2.38
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 75 · 0.56 per game | 42 of 75 · 1.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 1. FC Heidenheim wins0 draws5 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game0.80 – 3.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 8 Nov 2025Bayer Leverkusen6–01. FC Heidenheim
- 5 Apr 20251. FC Heidenheim0–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 23 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–21. FC Heidenheim
- 17 Feb 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 24 Sep 2023Bayer Leverkusen4–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.23 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 54% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.40 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 4.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 4.15 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 10/24 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.77 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 4.96 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 12/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.10 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.70
Red cards0.31league 0.17
Cards 5+46%league 37%
Fouls22.1league 20.5
Penalties0.54league 0.36
Home wins38%league 46%
1. FC HeidenheimNo previous matches with this referee.
Bayer Leverkusen2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D30 Aug 25A · Werder Bremen3–33
- W2 Feb 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim26 games · scored 24 · conceded 58
1
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
14
31-45
5
12
46-60
4
9
61-75
7
12
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen26 games · scored 49 · conceded 33
9
4
0-15
8
5
16-30
13
11
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
4
61-75
7
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
