Bundesliga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz
1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 14 pts · 26 played
3–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen 6th · 45 pts · 26 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1. FC Heidenheim14.0%fair odds 7.13
Draw19.8%fair odds 5.04
Bayer Leverkusen66.1%fair odds 1.51
Expected goals0.93 – 2.22total 3.15
Likeliest score0–210.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayer Leverkusen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen →0123456+
04.89.010.67.84.31.91.0
13.59.39.87.34.01.80.9
21.94.14.63.41.90.80.4
30.61.31.41.00.60.30.1
40.10.30.30.20.10.10.0
50.00.10.10.00.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 0–210.6%9.47
  • 1–29.8%10.18
  • 1–19.3%10.72
  • 0–19.0%11.05
  • 0–37.8%12.81
  • 1–37.3%13.77
  • 0–04.8%21.01
  • 2–24.6%21.88
  • 0–44.3%23.10
  • 2–14.1%24.27

Winning margin

1.2% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 84.54
3.5% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 28.46
9.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 10.72
19.8% Draw fair 5.04
22.9% Bayer Leverkusen by 1 fair 4.37
20.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 2 fair 5.01
23.3% Bayer Leverkusen by 3+ fair 4.30

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+

Bayer Leverkusen goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1. FC Heidenheim win 14.0% 14.9% -0.8 pp
Draw 19.8% 21.5% -1.6 pp
Bayer Leverkusen win 66.1% 63.6% +2.5 pp
Over 2.5 60.9% 55.7% +5.2 pp
Both teams score 54.4% 51.4% +3.1 pp
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 0.93 0.88 +0.05
Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 2.03 +0.19

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1. FC Heidenheim win14.0%7.13
  • Draw19.8%5.04
  • Bayer Leverkusen win66.1%1.51
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw33.9%2.95
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Bayer Leverkusen80.2%1.25
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw86.0%1.16
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim17.5%5.71
  • Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen82.5%1.21

Goals

  • Over 0.595.2%1.05
  • Over 1.582.7%1.21
  • Over 2.560.9%1.64
  • Over 3.538.6%2.59
  • Over 4.521.0%4.75
  • Under 1.517.3%5.77
  • Under 2.539.1%2.56
  • Under 3.561.4%1.63

Both teams to score

  • Yes54.4%1.84
  • No45.6%2.20
  • Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes7.9%12.64
  • Draw and yes15.1%6.63
  • Bayer Leverkusen win and yes31.4%3.18

Team goals

  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.560.6%1.65
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.523.9%4.19
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.56.8%14.71
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 0.589.1%1.12
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 1.565.0%1.54
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 2.538.2%2.62
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet10.9%9.19
  • Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet39.4%2.54
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil6.1%16.34
  • Bayer Leverkusen win to nil34.7%2.88

Handicap

  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.54.7%21.29
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −2.51.2%84.54
  • Bayer Leverkusen +1.595.3%1.05
  • Bayer Leverkusen +2.598.8%1.01
  • Bayer Leverkusen −1.543.2%2.31
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.556.8%1.76

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored235 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.560 Over 2.5 called right60.4% BTTS called right56.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3138.3%38.7%
40–50%7145.0%43.7%
50–60%6655.2%62.1%
60–70%3864.5%71.1%
70–80%1974.2%73.7%
80%+1085.9%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 188 of 235 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55170.5466
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.3%
Favourite won58.0%58.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 188 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 235 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.