Bundesliga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 21 · 16:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz
1. FC Heidenheim 17th · 11 pts · 14 played
0–4Full time
Bayern München 1st · 38 pts · 14 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1. FC Heidenheim6.3%fair odds 15.75
Draw12.5%fair odds 8.01
Bayern München81.2%fair odds 1.23
Expected goals0.76 – 2.95total 3.70
Likeliest score0–210.7%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Bayern München →0123456+
02.87.010.710.57.74.63.7
11.65.88.18.05.93.52.8
20.72.13.13.02.21.31.1
30.20.50.80.80.60.30.3
40.00.10.10.10.10.10.1
50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 0–210.7%9.34
  • 0–310.5%9.51
  • 1–28.1%12.35
  • 1–38.0%12.58
  • 0–47.7%12.92
  • 0–17.0%14.34
  • 1–45.9%17.07
  • 1–15.8%17.28
  • 0–54.6%21.92
  • 1–53.5%28.98

Winning margin

0.4% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 276.03
1.4% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 71.43
4.6% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 21.80
12.5% Draw fair 8.01
18.7% Bayern München by 1 fair 5.35
21.2% Bayern München by 2 fair 4.71
41.2% Bayern München by 3+ fair 2.43

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
9%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

47%0
36%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+

Bayern München goals

5%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
34%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1. FC Heidenheim win 6.3% 7.3% -1.0 pp
Draw 12.5% 14.8% -2.4 pp
Bayern München win 81.2% 77.8% +3.3 pp
Over 2.5 71.5% 64.0% +7.5 pp
Both teams score 50.6% 46.9% +3.7 pp
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 0.76 0.70 +0.06
Expected goals Bayern München 2.95 2.60 +0.34

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1. FC Heidenheim win6.3%15.75
  • Draw12.5%8.01
  • Bayern München win81.2%1.23
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw18.8%5.31
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Bayern München87.5%1.14
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw93.7%1.07
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim7.3%13.78
  • Draw no bet Bayern München92.7%1.08

Goals

  • Over 0.597.2%1.03
  • Over 1.588.7%1.13
  • Over 2.571.5%1.40
  • Over 3.550.6%1.98
  • Over 4.531.3%3.19
  • Under 1.511.3%8.84
  • Under 2.528.5%3.51
  • Under 3.549.4%2.03

Both teams to score

  • Yes50.6%1.98
  • No49.4%2.02
  • Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes3.9%25.96
  • Draw and yes9.7%10.28
  • Bayern München win and yes37.0%2.70

Team goals

  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.553.1%1.88
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.517.6%5.69
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.54.1%24.17
  • Bayern München over 0.594.7%1.06
  • Bayern München over 1.579.3%1.26
  • Bayern München over 2.556.5%1.77
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet5.3%19.03
  • Bayern München clean sheet46.9%2.13
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil2.5%40.03
  • Bayern München win to nil44.2%2.26

Handicap

  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.51.8%56.74
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −2.50.4%276.03
  • Bayern München +1.598.2%1.02
  • Bayern München +2.599.6%1.00
  • Bayern München −1.562.5%1.60
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.537.5%2.66

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored134 Favourite won55.2% Avg chance given to result42.6% 1X2 Brier0.568 Over 2.5 called right60.4% BTTS called right55.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1938.2%52.6%
40–50%4345.1%39.5%
50–60%3554.9%54.3%
60–70%2265.2%77.3%
70–80%1274.0%75.0%
80%+388.9%66.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 115 of 134 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55530.5556
Avg chance given to result43.2%42.5%
Favourite won57.4%55.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 115 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 134 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.