1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 11 pts · 14 played
LLWWL
0–4Full time
Bayern München
1st · 38 pts · 14 played
DWWWD
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 28). Bayern München usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1. FC Heidenheim had 8.1 days of rest, Bayern München 7 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
1. FC Heidenheim6%
Draw12%
Bayern München81%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Draw14%
Bayern München79%
1. FC Heidenheim6%
Draw12%
Bayern München82%
1. FC Heidenheim4%
Draw9%
Bayern München86%
1. FC Heidenheim7%
Draw15%
Bayern München78%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 63
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimBayern München
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
48
AttackIn forecast
96
39
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimBayern München
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.64
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
2.47
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+1.17
64%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.07
ShotsContext
18.64
3.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.79
32%
On target shareContext
42%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
12.93
63%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
20%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.77
14.79
Shots allowedContext
8.64
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
3.64
BlocksContext
3.55
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.56
59%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
362
PassesContext
707
284
Accurate passesContext
638
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.19
10.43
FoulsContext
9.79
10.79
Fouls sufferedContext
8.93
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.21
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
70%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
17.70
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
30%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.22
65%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.29
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.43
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
51%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
379
PassesContext
698
298
Accurate passesContext
630
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.90
FoulsContext
9.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.9 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
23O. Traoré
20L. Kerber
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
18M. Pieringer
17M. Honsak
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
21H. Ito
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
22R. Guerreiro
8L. Goretzka
14L. Díaz
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Bayern München-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.86
Bayern München · Away
2.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 6–2 H |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | W 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 4–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | W 5–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 39 · 0.85 per game | 37 of 39 · 2.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 1. FC Heidenheim wins0 draws3 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.75 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 19 Apr 20251. FC Heidenheim0–4Bayern München
- 7 Dec 2024Bayern München4–21. FC Heidenheim
- 6 Apr 20241. FC Heidenheim3–2Bayern München
- 11 Nov 2023Bayern München4–21. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 3.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 4.43 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 0% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 3.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.08 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.54 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 3.93 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.11 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.89
Red cards0.17league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls22.4league 21.3
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins49%league 45%
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25A · Union Berlin3–00
- L25 Jan 25A · FC Augsburg1–20
- W5 Nov 23H · VfB Stuttgart2–02
- L19 Aug 23A · VfL Wolfsburg0–20
Bayern München5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Aug 25H · RB Leipzig6–04
- W29 Mar 25H · FC St. Pauli3–23
- W11 Mar 23H · FC Augsburg5–32
- W26 Feb 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–02
- L3 Oct 21H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim14 games · scored 13 · conceded 30
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Bayern München14 games · scored 51 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
10
2
16-30
10
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
16
4
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 30 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
