Bundesliga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 14:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz
1. FC Heidenheim 17th · 13 pts · 18 played
0–3Full time
RB Leipzig 5th · 32 pts · 17 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
1. FC Heidenheim20.9%fair odds 4.79
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.27
RB Leipzig55.7%fair odds 1.80
Expected goals1.08 – 1.89total 2.98
Likeliest score1–111.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

RB Leipzig

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · RB Leipzig →0123456+
05.69.19.15.82.71.00.4
15.011.09.96.23.01.10.5
23.05.75.43.41.60.60.3
31.12.01.91.20.60.20.1
40.30.60.50.30.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns RB Leipzig goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.0%9.09
  • 1–29.9%10.11
  • 0–29.1%10.96
  • 0–19.1%11.02
  • 1–36.2%16.01
  • 0–35.8%17.37
  • 2–15.7%17.64
  • 0–05.6%17.73
  • 2–25.4%18.63
  • 1–05.0%20.15

Winning margin

2.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 43.28
5.6% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 17.71
12.9% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 7.73
23.4% Draw fair 4.27
23.0% RB Leipzig by 1 fair 4.35
17.2% RB Leipzig by 2 fair 5.81
15.5% RB Leipzig by 3+ fair 6.46

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

RB Leipzig goals

15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
1. FC Heidenheim win 20.9% 21.3% -0.4 pp
Draw 23.4% 24.5% -1.1 pp
RB Leipzig win 55.7% 54.1% +1.6 pp
Over 2.5 57.2% 53.1% +4.2 pp
Both teams score 56.8% 53.9% +2.9 pp
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 1.03 +0.05
Expected goals RB Leipzig 1.89 1.77 +0.12

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • 1. FC Heidenheim win20.9%4.79
  • Draw23.4%4.27
  • RB Leipzig win55.7%1.80
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw44.3%2.26
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or RB Leipzig76.6%1.31
  • Double chance RB Leipzig or draw79.1%1.26
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim27.3%3.67
  • Draw no bet RB Leipzig72.7%1.38

Goals

  • Over 0.594.4%1.06
  • Over 1.580.3%1.24
  • Over 2.557.2%1.75
  • Over 3.534.8%2.87
  • Over 4.518.1%5.52
  • Under 1.519.7%5.08
  • Under 2.542.8%2.34
  • Under 3.565.2%1.53

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.8%1.76
  • No43.2%2.31
  • Yes and over 2.545.8%2.18
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes11.5%8.70
  • Draw and yes17.8%5.63
  • RB Leipzig win and yes27.5%3.63

Team goals

  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.566.2%1.51
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.529.5%3.38
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.59.7%10.36
  • RB Leipzig over 0.585.0%1.18
  • RB Leipzig over 1.556.5%1.77
  • RB Leipzig over 2.529.5%3.39
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet15.0%6.65
  • RB Leipzig clean sheet33.8%2.96
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil9.4%10.63
  • RB Leipzig win to nil28.2%3.55

Handicap

  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.58.0%12.57
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −2.52.3%43.28
  • RB Leipzig +1.592.0%1.09
  • RB Leipzig +2.597.7%1.02
  • RB Leipzig −1.532.7%3.06
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.567.3%1.49

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored160 Favourite won55.0% Avg chance given to result42.9% 1X2 Brier0.562 Over 2.5 called right62.5% BTTS called right56.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2538.2%44.0%
40–50%4945.1%38.8%
50–60%4255.0%57.1%
60–70%2565.1%76.0%
70–80%1374.3%76.9%
80%+686.1%83.3%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 140 of 160 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55310.5458
Avg chance given to result43.4%43.3%
Favourite won56.4%55.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 140 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 160 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.