1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 13 pts · 18 played
LLDLD
0–3Full time
RB Leipzig
5th · 32 pts · 17 played
WLLWL
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, RB Leipzig 6.9 and had to travel 336 km.
Away travel336 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig56%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig53%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig55%
1. FC Heidenheim16%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig63%
1. FC Heidenheim21%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig54%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 96
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimRB Leipzig
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
48
AttackIn forecast
76
39
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimRB Leipzig
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.94
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
67%
Scored inContext
88%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
11.22
ShotsContext
15.94
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.59
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.59
Shots in the boxContext
10.82
65%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.10
15.39
Shots allowedContext
12.53
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
3.83
BlocksContext
3.94
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
60%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
364
PassesContext
471
284
Accurate passesContext
398
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.22
FoulsContext
9.24
10.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.53
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.47
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.80
ShotsContext
16.40
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
27%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
65%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.50
BlocksContext
3.30
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
54%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
379
PassesContext
495
298
Accurate passesContext
422
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.90
FoulsContext
8.00
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,235 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel336 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 336 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,235 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
25L. Stergiou
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
17M. Honsak
21A. Beck
22A. Ibrahimović
18M. Pieringer
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.11
RB Leipzig · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | L 1–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | W 6–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws4 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 30 Aug 2025RB Leipzig2–01. FC Heidenheim
- 23 Feb 2025RB Leipzig2–21. FC Heidenheim
- 6 Oct 20241. FC Heidenheim0–1RB Leipzig
- 20 Apr 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2RB Leipzig
- 2 Dec 2023RB Leipzig2–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 3.35 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 59% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 47% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 12% | |
| Games | 18 | 17 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.82 | 5.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 10.75 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.47 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 18% 3/17 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 10.67 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.78
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+32%league 39%
Fouls22.1league 21.2
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins52%league 45%
1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L5 Oct 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–11
- L5 Apr 25H · Bayer Leverkusen0–11
- L22 Oct 23H · FC Augsburg2–53
RB Leipzig5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Mar 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–12
- L2 Nov 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–24
- W29 Apr 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–00
- D7 Aug 22A · VfB Stuttgart1–11
- L29 Aug 21A · VfL Wolfsburg0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim18 games · scored 17 · conceded 39
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
2
10
31-45
4
9
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
7
76-90
RB Leipzig17 games · scored 33 · conceded 24
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
