1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 3 pts · 6 played
LLLWL
2–2Full time
Werder Bremen
13th · 7 pts · 6 played
DWLLW
1. FC Heidenheim29.4%fair odds 3.40
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Werder Bremen44.7%fair odds 2.24
Expected goals1.26 – 1.60total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.21
- 1–29.2%10.83
- 0–18.6%11.63
- 0–27.4%13.60
- 2–17.3%13.77
- 1–06.6%15.08
- 0–06.4%15.67
- 2–25.8%17.24
- 1–34.9%20.34
- 2–04.5%21.98
Winning margin
4.2%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 23.73
8.5%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 11.82
16.8%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 5.96
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
21.5%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 4.65
13.7%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 7.31
9.5%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 10.48
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Werder Bremen goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 29.4% | 29.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 44.7% | 43.8% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 51.5% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 55.6% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.26 | 1.21 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.60 | 1.52 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win29.4%3.40
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Werder Bremen win44.7%2.24
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw55.3%1.81
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Werder Bremen74.2%1.35
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw70.6%1.42
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim39.7%2.52
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen60.3%1.66
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.4%1.28
- Over 2.554.3%1.84
- Over 3.532.0%3.13
- Over 4.516.1%6.22
- Under 1.521.6%4.63
- Under 2.545.7%2.19
- Under 3.568.0%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.73
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.545.5%2.20
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes15.6%6.42
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Werder Bremen win and yes22.6%4.42
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.571.5%1.40
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.535.7%2.80
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.513.3%7.53
- Werder Bremen over 0.579.7%1.25
- Werder Bremen over 1.547.4%2.11
- Werder Bremen over 2.521.6%4.63
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet20.3%4.94
- Werder Bremen clean sheet28.5%3.51
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil13.9%7.21
- Werder Bremen win to nil22.1%4.52
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.512.7%7.89
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.54.2%23.73
- Werder Bremen +1.587.3%1.15
- Werder Bremen +2.595.8%1.04
- Werder Bremen −1.523.2%4.31
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.576.8%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won52.7%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right61.8%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.2% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 45.2% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 66.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5333 | 0.5379 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.3% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 56.8% | 59.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.