1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 3 pts · 6 played
LLLWL
2–2Full time
Werder Bremen
13th · 7 pts · 6 played
DWLLW
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 29). 1. FC Heidenheim had 13 days of rest, Werder Bremen 14 and had to travel 498 km.
Away travel498 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen45%
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen44%
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen45%
1. FC Heidenheim23%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen52%
1. FC Heidenheim30%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen44%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 35
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimWerder Bremen
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
48
AttackIn forecast
56
39
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimWerder Bremen
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
50%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
35%
On target shareContext
41%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.83
15.83
Shots allowedContext
15.67
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
4.17
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
55%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
328
PassesContext
456
252
Accurate passesContext
373
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.50
FoulsContext
9.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.70
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
39%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
59%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.30
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.22
BlocksContext
4.30
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
70%
Save rateContext
69%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
357
PassesContext
470
281
Accurate passesContext
388
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.30
FoulsContext
8.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km145 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel498 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 498 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 145 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
22A. Ibrahimović
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
21A. Beck
11B. Zivzivadze
29M. Kaufmann
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
18Cameron Puertas
6J. Stage
24Patrice Čović
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
17M. Grüll
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Werder Bremen · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 May 20251. FC Heidenheim1–4Werder Bremen
- 15 Jan 2025Werder Bremen3–31. FC Heidenheim
- 10 Feb 2024Werder Bremen1–21. FC Heidenheim
- 17 Sep 20231. FC Heidenheim4–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.83 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.83 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.83 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 7.16 | 11.66 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.00 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 10.42 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.10 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 4.25
Red cards0.06league 0.25
Cards 5+34%league 44%
Fouls26.6league 22.8
Penalties0.31league 0.42
Home wins51%league 42%
1. FC Heidenheim2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D13 Apr 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W17 Sep 23H · Werder Bremen4–21
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L17 Sep 23A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–41
- L27 May 23A · Union Berlin0–13
- L28 Aug 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim6 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Werder Bremen6 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
5
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
