1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
1.FC Köln
14th · 32 pts · 32 played
DWDLD
1–3Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 23 pts · 32 played
DWLWD
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
1.FC Köln were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. 1.FC Köln had 8.1 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 8.1 and had to travel 340 km.
Away travel340 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln48%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
1.FC Köln50%
Draw26%
1. FC Heidenheim24%
1.FC Köln48%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
1.FC Köln40%
Draw25%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
1.FC Köln48%
Draw25%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 108
Team strength
1.FC Köln1. FC Heidenheim
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
36
AttackIn forecast
48
36
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1.FC Köln1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.16
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
88%
Scored inContext
66%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
3%
12.56
ShotsContext
10.97
4.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
31%
8.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
69%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.04
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.81
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.31
3.90
BlocksContext
3.90
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.16
64%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
393
PassesContext
351
319
Accurate passesContext
272
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.74
7.91
FoulsContext
9.53
9.97
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
9.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
35%
On target shareContext
37%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
78%
Box shareContext
76%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.10
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
63%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
386
PassesContext
339
313
Accurate passesContext
260
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.80
7.80
FoulsContext
8.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel340 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 340 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 957 km | 242 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
18Í. Jóhannesson
5T. Krauß
13S. El Mala
16J. Kamiński
37L. Maina
30M. Bülter
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
40F. Feller(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
8E. Dinkçi
11B. Zivzivadze
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.69
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-12
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1.FC Köln | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 H | D 3–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Points | 31 of 93 · 1.00 per game | 22 of 93 · 0.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 1.FC Köln wins2 draws1 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 20261. FC Heidenheim2–21.FC Köln
- 18 May 20241. FC Heidenheim4–11.FC Köln
- 13 Jan 20241.FC Köln1–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 2.16 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 3.34 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 69% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 63% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 3% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| 1.FC Köln | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 4.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.64 | 5.07 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 9.60 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.32 | 3.41 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 34% 11/32 | |
| 1.FC Köln | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.43 | 8.40 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.80 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.69
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls20.5league 20.2
Penalties0.19league 0.35
Home wins42%league 44%
1.FC Köln3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L27 May 23H · Bayern München1–23
- W12 May 23H · Hertha BSC5–22
- L9 Oct 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–53
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Jan 26A · FSV Mainz 051–22
- L22 Dec 24A · VfL Bochum0–27
- W25 Aug 24A · FC St. Pauli2–03
- D5 May 24H · FSV Mainz 051–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln32 games · scored 47 · conceded 55
8
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
4
11
31-45
7
8
46-60
4
13
61-75
19
11
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim32 games · scored 38 · conceded 69
3
3
0-15
5
11
16-30
6
16
31-45
7
13
46-60
6
11
61-75
11
15
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
