1.FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim – 10 May 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 33 Sun, May 10 · 16:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln

1.FC Köln 14th · 32 pts · 32 played DWDLD

1–3Full time

1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 23 pts · 32 played DWLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

1.FC Köln48.4%fair odds 2.07

Draw23.9%fair odds 4.19

1. FC Heidenheim27.8%fair odds 3.60

Expected goals1.83 – 1.35total 3.18

Likeliest score1–110.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

1.FC Köln

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

1.FC Köln ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim →	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	4.7	5.0	3.8	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
1	7.1	10.8	6.9	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
2	7.0	9.4	6.3	2.9	1.0	0.3	0.1
3	4.3	5.8	3.9	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
4	2.0	2.6	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
6+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

1–110.8%9.26
2–19.4%10.63
1–07.1%14.16
2–07.0%14.33
1–26.9%14.46
2–26.3%15.76
3–15.8%17.38
0–15.0%19.81
0–04.7%21.32
3–04.3%23.44

Winning margin

12.3% 1.FC Köln by 3+ fair 8.14

14.8% 1.FC Köln by 2 fair 6.74

21.3% 1.FC Köln by 1 fair 4.70

23.9% Draw fair 4.19

15.5% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 6.46

8.0% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 12.47

4.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 23.53

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0

12%1

22%2

22%3

18%4

22%5+

1.FC Köln goals

16%0

29%1

27%2

16%3

11%4+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

26%0

35%1

24%2

11%3

5%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

	LOAD90	EloLambda	Change
1.FC Köln win	48.4%	47.5%	+0.8 pp
Draw	23.9%	24.5%	-0.6 pp
1. FC Heidenheim win	27.8%	27.9%	-0.2 pp
Over 2.5	61.6%	59.0%	+2.7 pp
Both teams score	62.8%	60.8%	+1.9 pp
Expected goals 1.FC Köln	1.83	1.76	+0.08
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim	1.35	1.30	+0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

1.FC Köln win48.4%2.07
Draw23.9%4.19
1. FC Heidenheim win27.8%3.60
Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw72.2%1.38
Double chance 1.FC Köln or 1. FC Heidenheim76.1%1.31
Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw51.6%1.94
Draw no bet 1.FC Köln63.5%1.57
Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim36.5%2.74

Goals

Over 0.595.3%1.05
Over 1.583.2%1.20
Over 2.561.6%1.62
Over 3.539.4%2.54
Over 4.521.6%4.62
Under 1.516.8%5.95
Under 2.538.4%2.61
Under 3.560.6%1.65

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%1.59
No37.2%2.68
Yes and over 2.552.0%1.92
1.FC Köln win and yes27.1%3.69
Draw and yes19.2%5.21
1. FC Heidenheim win and yes16.5%6.07

Team goals

1.FC Köln over 0.584.0%1.19
1.FC Köln over 1.554.7%1.83
1.FC Köln over 2.527.9%3.59
1. FC Heidenheim over 0.574.0%1.35
1. FC Heidenheim over 1.539.0%2.56
1. FC Heidenheim over 2.515.4%6.49
1.FC Köln clean sheet26.0%3.85
1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet16.0%6.26
1.FC Köln win to nil21.3%4.70
1. FC Heidenheim win to nil11.3%8.86

Handicap

1.FC Köln −1.527.1%3.69
1.FC Köln −2.512.3%8.14
1. FC Heidenheim +1.572.9%1.37
1. FC Heidenheim +2.587.7%1.14
1. FC Heidenheim −1.512.3%8.15
1.FC Köln +1.587.7%1.14

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored295 Favourite won55.9% Avg chance given to result43.2% 1X2 Brier0.564 Over 2.5 called right62.0% BTTS called right60.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chance	Matches	Predicted	Actually won
30–40%	38	38.3%	34.2%
40–50%	94	45.0%	45.7%
50–60%	75	55.1%	60.0%
60–70%	46	64.6%	67.4%
70–80%	29	74.5%	79.3%
80%+	13	87.2%	76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 240 of 295 scored matches.

	LOAD90	Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)	0.5628	0.5582
Avg chance given to result	43.3%	42.7%
Favourite won	56.7%	55.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 295 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.