1.FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – 11 Oct 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln

1.FC Köln 14th · 4 pts · 4 played WLDL

2–1Full time

Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 4 played LLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

1.FC Köln were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln were without R. Ache and T. Dallinga. Borussia Mönchengladbach were without K. Itakura and F. Honorat. 1.FC Köln had 22 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 22 and had to travel 45 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel45 kmRest days22 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0

1.FC Köln48%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach29%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.37

1.FC Köln41%

Draw26%

Borussia Mönchengladbach33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

1.FC Köln48%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach29%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.38

1.FC Köln40%

Draw24%

Borussia Mönchengladbach36%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.53

1.FC Köln49%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach29%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.39

Over 2.5 62% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Köln)

14°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 77

Team strength

1.FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

36 AttackIn forecast 34

36 DefenceIn forecast 21

37 Form indexContext 14

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC Köln

Borussia Mönchengladbach

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 4.00

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.92

-0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.25 ShotsContext 16.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

32% On target shareContext 26%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

69% Box shareContext 74%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 3.67

15.75 Shots allowedContext 18.75

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 9.50

3.50 BlocksContext 3.67

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

63% Save rateContext 58%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

438 PassesContext 401

371 Accurate passesContext 329

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.46

10.50 FoulsContext 14.75

10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.07

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

100% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.90 ShotsContext 13.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

33% On target shareContext 28%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

70% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.75

13.20 Shots allowedContext 15.50

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.30

3.20 BlocksContext 3.38

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.40

53% Save rateContext 74%

49% PossessionIn forecast 49%

431 PassesContext 427

364 Accurate passesContext 351

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.77

8.90 FoulsContext 11.30

8.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln WLDL

Rest22 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts
W29 AugH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.2 xPts

Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLL

Rest22 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel45 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 14 · 0 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -4.4 vs expected

L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts
L29 AugA · RB Leipzig0–30.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1.FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	22Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep	22Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Confirmed XI

4-1-2-1-2

1M. Schwäbe(G)

3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 28S. Sebulonsen

6E. Skhiri

37L. Maina 8Í. Jóhannesson

47M. Moore

10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Nicolas(G)

5J. Leszczyński 4K. Diks 14D. Hashioka

26L. Ullrich 10F. Neuhaus 16P. Sander 29J. Scally

25R. Hack 38A. Bolin

3I. Lidberg

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1.FC Köln Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −22.7% · Defence line −1.3% of weighted minutes

ATT R. Ache Starter 6.83 Att −12.3%
ATT T. Dallinga Starter 7.31 Att −8.6%
MID A. Castro-Montes Rotation 6.67 Att −1.7% Def −1.1%
DEF T. Hübers Depth 7.35 Def −0.2%

Borussia Mönchengladbach Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −14.5% · Defence line −18.1% of weighted minutes

DEF K. Itakura Starter 6.02 Def −12.4%
MID F. Honorat Starter 6.85 Att −10.0% Def −4.3%
MID J. Castrop Rotation 6.52 Att −3.4% Def −1.4%
ATT N. Kühn Depth 7.11 Att −0.6%
ATT T. Kleindienst Depth 6.18 Att −0.6%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Leopold

Total impact vs full squads

1.FC Köln+0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 1.FC Köln wins3 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins

Goals per game2.38 – 2.13 Over 2.588% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 13%

21 Mar 20261.FC Köln3–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
8 Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach3–11.FC Köln
9 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–31.FC Köln
22 Oct 20231.FC Köln3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 Apr 20231.FC Köln0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
9 Oct 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach5–21.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1.FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	2.25	4.00
Match goals	3.75	5.50	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	75%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	4	4

	1.FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.30
Conceded per game	2.30	2.10
Match goals	3.80	3.40	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	40%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1.FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	6.75	6.75
Corners conceded	6.25	5.25
Match total	13.00	12.00	10.81
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.25
Opponent cards	1.25	2.00
Match total	3.25	5.25	3.52
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4

	1.FC Köln	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	4.33
Corners conceded	5.44	5.78
Match total	11.66	10.11	10.81
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	3.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.40
Match total	3.80	5.60	3.52
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.39league 3.44

Red cards0.17league 0.09

Cards 5+29%league 19%

Fouls22.3league 22.4

Penalties0.29league 0.14

Home wins49%league 49%

1.FC Köln7 with this referee

Record1-1-5 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

W29 Aug 26H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20
L22 Nov 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–40
L15 Mar 24H · RB Leipzig1–52
D3 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
L6 Nov 22A · SC Freiburg0–21

Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee

Record2-0-5 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W3 May 26H · Borussia Dortmund1–03
L14 Jan 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–50
L4 Oct 24A · FC Augsburg1–24
L13 Apr 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
L20 Dec 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.