Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 2 · 14:30 RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln
1.FC Köln 9th · 11 pts · 8 played
4–1Full time
Hamburger SV 13th · 8 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

1.FC Köln were slight favourites.

1.FC Köln were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 33). 1.FC Köln had 7.9 days of rest, Hamburger SV 8 and had to travel 357 km.

Away travel357 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
1.FC Köln48%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV27%
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.20
1.FC Köln48%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV26%
Expected goals 1.60 – 1.11
1.FC Köln48%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV26%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.18
1.FC Köln41%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV33%
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.34
1.FC Köln48%
Draw26%
Hamburger SV26%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.13
Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.29
  • Matches 79

Team strength

1.FC KölnHamburger SV
40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 40
36 AttackIn forecast 37
36 DefenceIn forecast 43
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1.FC KölnHamburger SV
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.36
88% Scored inContext 38%
25% Clean sheetsContext 38%
11.38 ShotsContext 14.13
4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
33% On target shareContext 34%
7.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
62% Box shareContext 55%
13% ConversionContext 6%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.13
15.75 Shots allowedContext 14.00
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25
5.25 BlocksContext 3.38
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
72% Save rateContext 71%
44% PossessionIn forecast 48%
373 PassesContext 408
300 Accurate passesContext 340
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.89
9.13 FoulsContext 12.50
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.44
90% Scored inContext 40%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.10 ShotsContext 13.30
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30
34% On target shareContext 32%
9.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.78
64% Box shareContext 51%
12% ConversionContext 6%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.10
15.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20
5.10 BlocksContext 3.33
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
66% Save rateContext 75%
47% PossessionIn forecast 50%
384 PassesContext 421
307 Accurate passesContext 347
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.92
10.80 FoulsContext 12.00
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1.FC Köln
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km148 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Hamburger SV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel357 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1.FC Köln Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways148 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.16

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar 6E. Martel 2Joel Schmied
32K. Lund 8D. Huseinbašić 18Í. Jóhannesson 16J. Kamiński
11F. Kainz
37L. Maina 9R. Ache
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli 44L. Vušković 21N. Remberg
28M. Muheim 6A. Sambi Lokonga 20Fábio Vieira 2W. Mikelbrencis
7Jean-Luc Dompe 14Rayan Philippe
11R. Königsdörffer
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1.FC Köln Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • 1.FC Köln-0.2 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Hamburger SV+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

1.FC Köln · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Hamburger SV · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent1.FC KölnHamburger SV
RB Leipzig L 1–3 A L 1–2 A
VfL Wolfsburg D 3–3 A L 0–1 H
FSV Mainz 05 W 1–0 A W 4–0 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

1.FC KölnHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 1.500.88
Conceded per game 1.381.38
Match goals 2.882.25 2.89
Over 1.5 63%63%
Over 2.5 50%50% 55%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 63%25% 58%
Clean sheets 25%38%
Failed to score 13%63%
Games88
1.FC KölnHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 1.500.88
Conceded per game 1.381.38
Match goals 2.882.25 2.89
Over 1.5 63%63%
Over 2.5 50%50% 55%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 63%25% 58%
Clean sheets 25%38%
Failed to score 13%63%
Games88

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1.FC KölnHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.504.00
Corners conceded8.134.88
Match total12.638.889.84
Over 8.575% 6/838% 3/8
Over 9.575% 6/838% 3/8
Over 10.563% 5/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.882.25
Opponent cards2.002.63
Match total3.884.884.38
Over 3.575% 6/888% 7/8
Over 4.525% 2/863% 5/8
1.FC KölnHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.404.00
Corners conceded7.804.60
Match total13.208.609.84
Over 8.580% 8/1030% 3/10
Over 9.580% 8/1030% 3/10
Over 10.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.101.80
Opponent cards1.902.80
Match total4.004.604.38
Over 3.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.24league 4.19
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+49%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 22.4
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins56%league 42%
1.FC Köln1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • L20 Jan 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–42
Hamburger SV

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

1.FC Köln8 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
5 4 76-90
Hamburger SV8 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
7 5 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
1 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
FC Augsburg Borussia Dortmund 01 FSV Mainz 05 Werder Bremen 11 RB Leipzig VfB Stuttgart 31 1. FC Heidenheim Eintracht Frankfurt 11 Union Berlin SC Freiburg 00 FC St. Pauli Borussia Mönchengladbach 04 Bayern München Bayer Leverkusen 30 1.FC Köln Hamburger SV 41 VfL Wolfsburg 1899 Hoffenheim 23