1.FC Köln
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1.FC Köln48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Hamburger SV26.5%fair odds 3.77
Expected goals1.69 – 1.20total 2.89
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1.FC Köln ↓ · Hamburger SV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1.FC Köln goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.43
- 2–19.5%10.50
- 1–08.8%11.37
- 2–07.9%12.59
- 1–26.8%14.80
- 0–06.2%16.25
- 0–16.1%16.48
- 2–25.7%17.50
- 3–15.4%18.62
- 3–04.5%22.34
Winning margin
11.3%
1.FC Köln by 3+
fair 8.88
14.9%
1.FC Köln by 2
fair 6.72
22.1%
1.FC Köln by 1
fair 4.52
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
15.5%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 6.44
7.5%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 13.36
3.5%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 28.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
1.FC Köln goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Hamburger SV goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln win | 48.3% | 47.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Hamburger SV win | 26.5% | 26.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 51.9% | +3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.6% | 55.0% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals 1.FC Köln | 1.69 | 1.62 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 1.20 | 1.13 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1.FC Köln win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Hamburger SV win26.5%3.77
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw73.5%1.36
- Double chance 1.FC Köln or Hamburger SV74.8%1.34
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet 1.FC Köln64.5%1.55
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV35.5%2.82
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.2%1.81
- Over 3.532.8%3.05
- Over 4.516.7%6.00
- Under 1.521.0%4.76
- Under 2.544.8%2.23
- Under 3.567.2%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes57.6%1.74
- No42.4%2.36
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- 1.FC Köln win and yes24.3%4.11
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Hamburger SV win and yes14.2%7.02
Team goals
- 1.FC Köln over 0.581.6%1.23
- 1.FC Köln over 1.550.4%1.98
- 1.FC Köln over 2.524.0%4.16
- Hamburger SV over 0.569.9%1.43
- Hamburger SV over 1.533.7%2.97
- Hamburger SV over 2.512.0%8.30
- 1.FC Köln clean sheet30.1%3.32
- Hamburger SV clean sheet18.4%5.42
- 1.FC Köln win to nil24.0%4.17
- Hamburger SV win to nil12.3%8.14
Handicap
- 1.FC Köln −1.526.1%3.83
- 1.FC Köln −2.511.3%8.88
- Hamburger SV +1.573.9%1.35
- Hamburger SV +2.588.7%1.13
- Hamburger SV −1.511.0%9.10
- 1.FC Köln +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored79
Favourite won57.0%
Avg chance given to result44.0%
1X2 Brier0.537
Over 2.5 called right60.8%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 54.5% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 65.6% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 61 of 79 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5059 | 0.5179 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 44.4% |
| Favourite won | 60.7% | 60.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 61 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 79 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.