1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.2 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 5.1 and had to travel 232 km.
Away travel232 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim48%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln27%
1899 Hoffenheim47%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
1899 Hoffenheim48%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln27%
1899 Hoffenheim40%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln34%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 104
Team strength
1899 Hoffenheim
1.FC Köln
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
46
AttackIn forecast
36
43
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 Hoffenheim1.FC Köln
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
13.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
40%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
68%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
5.20
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
64%
Save rateContext
61%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
409
PassesContext
388
324
Accurate passesContext
320
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.80
FoulsContext
10.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
16.40
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
68%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.80
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.90
BlocksContext
4.89
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
60%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
411
PassesContext
417
329
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.00
FoulsContext
12.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km318 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel232 km762 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 232 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 318 km | 762 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
10M. Damar
19T. Lemperle
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3D. Heintz
4T. Hübers
2Joel Schmied
32K. Lund
6E. Martel
18Í. Jóhannesson
28S. Sebulonsen
13S. El Mala
29J. Thielmann
16J. Kamiński
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
1.FC Köln · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 1899 Hoffenheim wins2 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 11 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim1–11.FC Köln
- 16 Sep 20231.FC Köln1–31899 Hoffenheim
- 22 Apr 20231899 Hoffenheim1–31.FC Köln
- 30 Oct 20221.FC Köln1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 6 Mar 20221.FC Köln0–11899 Hoffenheim
- 15 Oct 20211899 Hoffenheim5–01.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 11.80 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.60 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.70 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.90 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 4.29
Red cards0.14league 0.31
Cards 5+56%league 47%
Fouls21.9league 22.9
Penalties0.28league 0.51
Home wins45%league 38%
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Apr 24A · FSV Mainz 051–42
- W28 Oct 23A · VfB Stuttgart3–21
- W2 Sep 23H · VfL Wolfsburg3–12
- L9 Nov 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–43
- D17 Apr 22H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth0–03
1.FC Köln7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Mar 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–34
- D13 Jan 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–13
- L8 Oct 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–30
- W5 May 23A · Bayer Leverkusen2–16
- D2 Apr 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim5 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
1.FC Köln5 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 19 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
