UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 17:45 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 29th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel369 kmRest days11.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Anderlecht—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brussel)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Anderlecht1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
37 AttackIn forecast 46
52 DefenceIn forecast 43
59 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Anderlecht1899 Hoffenheim
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.29 xGVia Att/Def —
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.79 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.50 ShotsContext 17.00
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
48% On target shareContext 24%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
68% Box shareContext 66%
4% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
13.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
2.00 BlocksContext 4.50
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
77% Save rateContext 38%
57% PossessionIn forecast 60%
519 PassesContext 506
452 Accurate passesContext 418
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.39
13.50 FoulsContext 20.50
16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
70% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.88 ShotsContext 16.60
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
38% On target shareContext 28%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
61% Box shareContext 62%
8% ConversionContext 8%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.25 Shots allowedContext 12.90
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
1.90 BlocksContext 4.10
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
81% Save rateContext 50%
60% PossessionIn forecast 59%
533 PassesContext 515
459 Accurate passesContext 426
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.72
12.90 FoulsContext 14.00
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest11.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,881 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel369 km318 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match11.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Nov5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km369 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,881 km318 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.81.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Anderlecht wins0 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game3.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 30 Jan 2025Anderlecht3–41899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Anderlecht1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 0.501.00
Conceded per game 1.502.50
Match goals 2.003.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
Anderlecht1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.401.40
Conceded per game 0.702.30
Match goals 2.103.70
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 0%60%
Both teams scored 20%70%
Clean sheets 60%10%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Anderlecht1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won4.007.50
Corners conceded5.004.50
Match total9.0012.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Cards
Cards1.003.50
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total3.005.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Anderlecht1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won5.407.10
Corners conceded3.804.20
Match total9.2011.309.76
Over 8.560% 6/10100% 10/10
Over 9.540% 4/1090% 9/10
Over 10.510% 1/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.202.70
Opponent cards1.801.40
Match total4.004.103.76
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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