1899 Hoffenheim vs Besiktas – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–3Full time

Besiktas 9th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Besiktas. 1899 Hoffenheim were without A. Hajdari. Besiktas were without D. Vlahović and V. Černý. 1899 Hoffenheim had 5.2 days of rest, Besiktas 4.1 and had to travel 1,813 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,813 kmRest days5.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

1899 Hoffenheim41%

Draw23%

Besiktas36%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.60

1899 Hoffenheim43%

Draw26%

Besiktas31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

1899 Hoffenheim41%

Draw23%

Besiktas36%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.61

1899 Hoffenheim33%

Draw23%

Besiktas44%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.79

1899 Hoffenheim41%

Draw24%

Besiktas35%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.50

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sinsheim)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 84%

Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 61

Team strength

1899 Hoffenheim

Besiktas

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

46 AttackIn forecast 60

43 DefenceIn forecast 48

18 Form indexContext 80

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack+5%

Defense risk−2%

Besiktas

Attack−10%

Defense risk+22%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

1899 Hoffenheim

Besiktas

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.60 ShotsContext 16.71

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.29

28% On target shareContext 38%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.86

61% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.86

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.71

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

51% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 63%

500 PassesContext 498

415 Accurate passesContext 431

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.01

14.50 FoulsContext 11.56

8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.33

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim LWLLL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 18 · 3 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
W12 SepH · VfB Stuttgart2–11.4 xPts
L5 SepH · Borussia Dortmund2–31.2 xPts

Besiktas WWWLW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,813 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts
W11 SepH · Erzurumspor FK3–02.1 xPts
W5 SepA · Fenerbahce2–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1899 Hoffenheim	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct	4.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,813 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Baumann(G)

13Bernardo 28K. Machida 5O. Kabak 34V. Coufal

7L. Avdullahu 18W. Burger

14A. Daghim 11F. Asllani 27A. Kramarić

10A. Hložek

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Nübel(G)

11K. Ouattara 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

10O. Kökçü 4O. Ndidi

19L. Trossard 15Junior Olaitan 29I. Fakili

9H. Oh

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1899 Hoffenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −2.8% · Defence line −13.3% of weighted minutes

DEF A. Hajdari Starter 6.87 Def −11.6%
MID P. Wimmer Rotation 6.40 Att −2.8% Def −1.7%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Engelns

Besiktas Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −29.1% · Defence line −1.1% of weighted minutes

ATT D. Vlahović Core 7.30 Att −16.7%
ATT V. Černý Starter 6.79 Att −11.5%
MID M. Rashica Rotation 6.77 Att −1.0% Def −1.1%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): C. Keles

Total impact vs full squads

1899 Hoffenheim+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Besiktas-0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home No home games yet this season.

Besiktas · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	1899 Hoffenheim	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	4.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	5.00	3.33
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	1899 Hoffenheim	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.30
Conceded per game	2.30	1.00
Match goals	3.80	3.30	3.33
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	65%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	66%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1899 Hoffenheim	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	3.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	12.00	7.00	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.71
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	1899 Hoffenheim	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	7.10	7.33
Corners conceded	4.20	3.67
Match total	11.30	11.00	9.67
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.80
Match total	4.30	4.80	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.84league 3.58

Red cards0.30league 0.12

Cards 5+61%league 38%

Fouls23.1league 24.7

Penalties0.23league 0.23

Home wins49%league 38%

1899 Hoffenheim

No previous matches with this referee.

Besiktas

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.