1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
7th · 20 pts · 11 played
WWWWD
3–0Full time
FC Augsburg
13th · 10 pts · 11 played
DLLLW
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 38). 1899 Hoffenheim had 7.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 177 km.
Away travel177 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
1899 Hoffenheim54%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg23%
1899 Hoffenheim52%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg23%
1899 Hoffenheim53%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg23%
1899 Hoffenheim46%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg29%
1899 Hoffenheim52%
Draw25%
FC Augsburg23%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 61
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
46
AttackIn forecast
72
43
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.18
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
91%
Scored inContext
82%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.55
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
36%
On target shareContext
33%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.82
70%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.91
Shots allowedContext
12.73
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
3.91
BlocksContext
3.78
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
74%
Save rateContext
58%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
441
PassesContext
393
351
Accurate passesContext
313
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.55
FoulsContext
12.64
9.55
Fouls sufferedContext
10.91
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.18
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.30
ShotsContext
11.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
71%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
57%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
446
PassesContext
403
355
Accurate passesContext
323
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.30
FoulsContext
12.10
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel177 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Nov | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 177 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 184 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
6G. Prömel
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
29B. Toure
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
30A. Kade
36M. Kömür
32F. Rieder
9S. Essende
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
FC Augsburg · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | L 0–6 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 14 of 24 · 1.75 per game | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 1899 Hoffenheim wins3 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 29 Mar 20251899 Hoffenheim1–1FC Augsburg
- 10 Nov 2024FC Augsburg0–01899 Hoffenheim
- 7 Apr 20241899 Hoffenheim3–1FC Augsburg
- 11 Nov 2023FC Augsburg1–11899 Hoffenheim
- 17 Feb 2023FC Augsburg1–01899 Hoffenheim
- 27 Aug 20221899 Hoffenheim1–0FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 2.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 73% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 82% | 73% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.18 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.82 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.18 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 91% 10/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 82% 9/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 5.27 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.90 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.95
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+46%league 40%
Fouls23.3league 21.7
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins34%league 44%
1899 Hoffenheim8 with this referee
Record2-4-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D23 Feb 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–10
- L11 Jan 25H · VfL Wolfsburg0–11
- D27 Oct 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–02
- D11 Feb 24H · 1.FC Köln1–13
- W7 Oct 23A · Werder Bremen3–24
FC Augsburg5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L26 Apr 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–21
- L27 Jan 24H · Bayern München2–32
- D4 Nov 23A · 1.FC Köln1–14
- D21 Apr 23H · VfB Stuttgart1–15
- L28 Jan 23A · SC Freiburg1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim11 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
FC Augsburg11 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
