1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 49 pts · 25 played
LWDLW
1–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 20 pts · 25 played
LDLLL
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were clear favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim74%
Draw15%
VfL Wolfsburg11%
1899 Hoffenheim61%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
1899 Hoffenheim73%
Draw16%
VfL Wolfsburg11%
1899 Hoffenheim66%
Draw18%
VfL Wolfsburg16%
1899 Hoffenheim72%
Draw17%
VfL Wolfsburg12%
Over 2.5 75%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 55
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimVfL Wolfsburg
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
46
AttackIn forecast
50
43
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimVfL Wolfsburg
2.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
84%
Scored inContext
80%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.28
5.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
70%
Box shareContext
60%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.87
12.32
Shots allowedContext
14.88
4.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
3.54
BlocksContext
4.25
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.58
73%
Save rateContext
63%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
460
PassesContext
405
370
Accurate passesContext
324
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.44
FoulsContext
11.16
8.92
Fouls sufferedContext
9.12
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.05
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
10.80
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
41%
On target shareContext
31%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
73%
Box shareContext
58%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.20
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.67
BlocksContext
4.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
461
PassesContext
411
371
Accurate passesContext
329
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.10
FoulsContext
11.80
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km226 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel377 km841 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 226 km | 841 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
27A. Kramarić
22A. Prass
11F. Asllani
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
6J. Belocian
21J. Mæhle
24C. Eriksen
5Vinicius Souza
19J. Lindstrøm
26S. Kumbedi
9M. Amoura
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-4
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.17
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 1–8 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–0 H | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 46 of 72 · 1.92 per game | 20 of 72 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 1899 Hoffenheim wins2 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.89 – 1.56
Over 2.589%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets0% · 11%
- 2 Nov 2025VfL Wolfsburg2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 9 May 2025VfL Wolfsburg2–21899 Hoffenheim
- 11 Jan 20251899 Hoffenheim0–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 4 Feb 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–21899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Sep 20231899 Hoffenheim3–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 13 May 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.12 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.56 | 3.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 72% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 76% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.12 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.28 | 7.08 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.87 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 19/25 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 17/25 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.64 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 5/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.70 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.72
Red cards0.09league 0.17
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls24.1league 20.6
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins45%league 46%
1899 Hoffenheim5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D29 Mar 25H · FC Augsburg1–11
- L29 Sep 24H · Werder Bremen3–44
- L2 Dec 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–22
- W20 Aug 22A · Bayer Leverkusen3–04
- W15 Oct 21H · 1.FC Köln5–01
VfL Wolfsburg8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L11 Jan 26A · Bayern München1–81
- L18 Jan 25A · Bayern München2–33
- D26 Oct 24A · FC St. Pauli0–03
- W20 Apr 24H · VfL Bochum1–04
- D5 Nov 23H · Werder Bremen2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim25 games · scored 53 · conceded 33
4
5
0-15
8
5
16-30
15
5
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
7
61-75
8
6
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg25 games · scored 34 · conceded 55
8
6
0-15
6
8
16-30
3
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
6
9
61-75
5
16
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
8
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 27
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
