AC Milan
Attack+3%
Defense risk−2%
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AC Milan. AC Milan were without A. Saelemaekers. Atalanta were without F. Kessié and G. Scalvini. AC Milan had 3 days of rest, Atalanta 6 and had to travel 45 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel45 kmRest days3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
AC Milan62%
Draw21%
Atalanta16%
AC Milan47%
Draw26%
Atalanta27%
AC Milan60%
Draw22%
Atalanta17%
AC Milan55%
Draw24%
Atalanta22%
AC Milan63%
Draw20%
Atalanta17%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
17°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.7 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 86%
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 83
Team strength
AC Milan
Atalanta
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
72
AttackIn forecast
48
69
DefenceIn forecast
45
61
Form indexContext
38
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack−21%
Defense risk+27%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AC MilanAtalanta
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.33
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
68%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.17
Shots allowedContext
19.17
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
2.80
BlocksContext
5.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
80%
Save rateContext
80%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
581
PassesContext
477
518
Accurate passesContext
419
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.33
FoulsContext
10.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
13.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
38%
On target shareContext
33%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
70%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.60
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.44
BlocksContext
4.22
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
79%
Save rateContext
82%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
524
PassesContext
472
466
Accurate passesContext
408
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.40
FoulsContext
12.20
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
DLWDW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,057 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Atalanta
WLLLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel45 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 6 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 6Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,057 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
47L. Bernasconi
23S. Kolašinac
31T. Kristensen
16R. Bellanova
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
10L. Samardžić
11J. Rowe
90N. Krstović
17C. De Ketelaere
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −13.2% · Defence line −3.8% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Saelemaekers Starter 7.07 Att −13.2%
- DEF M. Gabbia Rotation 6.85 Def −3.8%
Atalanta
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.10 goals
Attack line −18.4% · Defence line −32.3% of weighted minutes
- MID F. Kessié Starter 7.06 Att −8.2% Def −7.1%
- DEF G. Scalvini Starter 7.04 Def −10.7%
- DEF I. Hien Rotation 6.75 Def −5.3%
- DEF O. Kossounou Rotation 6.64 Def −4.2%
- MID E. Elmas Rotation 6.58 Att −2.3% Def −2.0%
- MID R. Bellanova Rotation 6.56 Att −2.3% Def −2.0%
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Atalanta-1.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Atalanta · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Venezia | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 AC Milan wins3 draws4 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 10 May 2026AC Milan2–3Atalanta
- 28 Oct 2025Atalanta1–1AC Milan
- 20 Apr 2025AC Milan0–1Atalanta
- 6 Dec 2024Atalanta2–1AC Milan
- 25 Feb 2024AC Milan1–1Atalanta
- 9 Dec 2023Atalanta3–2AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AC Milan | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.17 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 9.17 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 1.33 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| AC Milan | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 7.80 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.10 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.32
Red cards0.22league 0.06
Cards 5+34%league 30%
Fouls22.4league 21.6
Penalties0.20league 0.12
Home wins41%league 47%
AC Milan13 with this referee
Record11-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W19 Apr 26A · Verona1–00
- W8 Dec 25A · Torino3–21
- W28 Sep 25H · Napoli2–12
- D2 Feb 25H · Inter1–10
- D23 Nov 24H · Juventus0–03
Atalanta7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Napoli2–11
- L6 Apr 25H · Lazio0–11
- W5 Oct 24H · Genoa5–10
- D1 Oct 23H · Juventus0–01
- L13 Nov 22H · Inter2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan6 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
9
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Atalanta6 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
