Genoa
Attack−16%
Defense risk+21%
Our take
AC Milan are slight favourites.
AC Milan are the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 29). AC Milan come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Genoa have 6.9 days of rest, AC Milan 2.8 and have to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days6.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 4
Genoa25%
Draw26%
AC Milan49%
Genoa23%
Draw25%
AC Milan51%
Genoa25%
Draw26%
AC Milan49%
Genoa19%
Draw24%
AC Milan56%
Genoa22%
Draw24%
AC Milan53%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Genoa and AC Milan. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Genoa
−0.24
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against1.17
-
Alert
Genoa
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Genoa
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Genoa
−0.24
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.93xG against1.17
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
GenoaAC Milan
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
23
AttackIn forecast
72
44
DefenceIn forecast
69
24
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack+4%
Defense risk−22%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
GenoaAC Milan
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
57%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.14
ShotsContext
12.29
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
26%
On target shareContext
38%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
68%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.60
15.00
Shots allowedContext
9.57
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
6.17
BlocksContext
2.67
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
380
PassesContext
583
306
Accurate passesContext
522
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.43
FoulsContext
9.29
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.20
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
25%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
68%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.38
BlocksContext
3.44
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
60%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
395
PassesContext
556
322
Accurate passesContext
498
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.40
FoulsContext
9.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
LDLWL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,762 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel119 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | High · 43 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,762 km | 642 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 4 / 8 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
31D. Puczka
32M. Frendrup
71S. Wiafe
77M. Ellertsson
92S. El Shaarawy
10J. Messias
18M. Osmajić
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
No reported absences
AC Milan
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
AC Milan · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Genoa wins3 draws5 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 17 May 2026Genoa1–2AC Milan
- 8 Jan 2026AC Milan1–1Genoa
- 5 May 2025Genoa1–2AC Milan
- 15 Dec 2024AC Milan0–0Genoa
- 5 May 2024AC Milan3–3Genoa
- 7 Oct 2023Genoa0–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genoa | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.14 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.29 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Genoa | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 6.80 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Genoa7 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
