Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 7 · 14:00 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 7th · 13 pts · 7 played WWWDL

VS— Compare

Frosinone 6th · 13 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cagliari are slight favourites.

Cagliari are the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Frosinone. Cagliari have 6 days of rest, Frosinone 6 and have to travel 446 km.

Away travel446 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3

Cagliari47%

Draw25%

Frosinone28%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.22

Cagliari48%

Draw26%

Frosinone26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.11

Cagliari47%

Draw25%

Frosinone28%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.22

Cagliari39%

Draw26%

Frosinone34%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.37

Cagliari49%

Draw23%

Frosinone28%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.40

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Frosinone 1.9 Goals scored per match Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Cagliari

Frosinone

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

31 AttackIn forecast 41

31 DefenceIn forecast 25

72 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Frosinone

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Frosinone

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

71% Scored inContext 71%

43% Clean sheetsContext 29%

10.57 ShotsContext 17.29

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29

38% On target shareContext 31%

6.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.86

60% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 11%

3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

19.57 Shots allowedContext 19.43

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.71

4.86 BlocksContext 5.29

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

81% Save rateContext 75%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

408 PassesContext 305

345 Accurate passesContext 227

85% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.43 FoulsContext 14.86

8.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.40 ShotsContext 17.50

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

35% On target shareContext 31%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

61% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.75 OffsidesContext 3.00

17.10 Shots allowedContext 17.40

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

4.10 BlocksContext 4.60

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

78% Save rateContext 77%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

429 PassesContext 315

365 Accurate passesContext 241

85% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.00 FoulsContext 12.70

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari WWWDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,647 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

L19 OctA · Monza0–41.4 xPts
D11 OctH · Juventus1–11.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Udinese1–01.2 xPts
W12 SepA · Atalanta2–10.8 xPts
W7 SepH · Lecce1–01.7 xPts

Frosinone WDWLW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel446 km1,078 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Sassuolo4–21.5 xPts
L10 OctA · Napoli0–30.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Como2–00.7 xPts
D12 SepA · Genoa1–11.1 xPts
W6 SepH · Venezia3–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Frosinone
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov	6Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	446 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,647 km	1,078 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	14	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-1-2 · vs Monza (A) 0–4, 19 Oct

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 26Y. Mina 2Zé Pedro

4Alessandro Romano 6H. Winks 8M. Adopo

70D. Maldini

18M. Nzola 31Paul Mendy

Frosinone Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sassuolo (H) 4–2, 16 Oct

22L. Palmisani(G)

79G. Bracaglia 30I. Monterisi 2G. Cittadini 20A. Oyono

14Giacomo Calò 73P. Masini

17G. Kvernadze 10R. Schmid 7F. Ghedjemis

9A. Raimondo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari No reported absences

Frosinone No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Frosinone+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 0.67

Frosinone · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Cagliari	Frosinone
Juventus	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Cagliari wins0 draws1 Frosinone wins

Goals per game2.50 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

21 Jan 2024Frosinone3–1Cagliari
29 Oct 2023Cagliari4–3Frosinone

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	0.86	1.86
Conceded per game	1.00	1.29
Match goals	1.86	3.14	2.88
Over 1.5	43%	86%
Over 2.5	29%	57%	55%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	58%
Clean sheets	43%	29%
Failed to score	29%	29%
Games	7	7

	Cagliari	Frosinone	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.86
Conceded per game	1.10	1.29
Match goals	2.10	3.14	2.88
Over 1.5	60%	86%
Over 2.5	40%	57%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	29%
Both teams scored	40%	43%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	29%
Failed to score	30%	29%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.57
Corners conceded	6.29	6.86
Match total	10.29	12.43	9.38
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.71
Opponent cards	1.14	2.43
Match total	2.43	4.14	3.43
Over 3.5	14% 1/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	0% 0/7	57% 4/7

	Cagliari	Frosinone	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	6.20
Corners conceded	5.40	5.60
Match total	10.00	11.80	9.38
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.40
Opponent cards	1.30	2.00
Match total	2.60	3.40	3.43
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.