AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 29). AC Milan had 6 days of rest, Genoa 5.2 and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
AC Milan69%
Draw20%
Genoa11%
AC Milan70%
Draw19%
Genoa11%
AC Milan69%
Draw20%
Genoa11%
AC Milan62%
Draw23%
Genoa15%
AC Milan70%
Draw19%
Genoa11%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 95
Team strength
AC Milan
Genoa
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
72
AttackIn forecast
23
69
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanGenoa
1.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
94%
Scored inContext
67%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
12.82
ShotsContext
10.78
4.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.59
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
67%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.41
Shots allowedContext
12.11
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.31
BlocksContext
4.27
2.87
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
83%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
476
PassesContext
355
417
Accurate passesContext
280
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.35
FoulsContext
13.44
11.82
Fouls sufferedContext
15.11
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
65%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.90
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
4.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
84%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
476
PassesContext
335
415
Accurate passesContext
262
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.90
FoulsContext
12.70
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
16.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,386 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel119 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,386 km | 804 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
10Rafael Leão
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
2M. Thorsby
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
9Vítinha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genoa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.89
Genoa · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Verona | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Torino | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Inter | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Parma | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 38 of 51 · 2.24 per game | 14 of 51 · 0.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 AC Milan wins2 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.83 – 0.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 17%
- 5 May 2025Genoa1–2AC Milan
- 15 Dec 2024AC Milan0–0Genoa
- 5 May 2024AC Milan3–3Genoa
- 7 Oct 2023Genoa0–1AC Milan
- 15 Apr 2022AC Milan2–0Genoa
- 1 Dec 2021Genoa0–3AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.65 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.76 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.56 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 61% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 67% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 33% | |
| Games | 17 | 18 |
| AC Milan | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.86 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 39% 7/18 | |
| AC Milan | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.90 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.86
Red cards0.21league 0.16
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls24.0league 25.8
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins46%league 37%
AC Milan9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L27 Feb 25A · Bologna1–22
- W22 Sep 24A · Inter2–11
- D27 Apr 24A · Juventus0–01
- W17 Mar 24A · Verona3–13
- L22 Oct 23H · Juventus0–12
Genoa6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W24 Aug 24A · Monza1–03
- W12 May 24H · Sassuolo2–11
- D1 Oct 23A · Udinese2–22
- W18 Mar 22H · Torino1–03
- D31 Oct 21H · Venezia0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan17 games · scored 28 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Genoa18 games · scored 18 · conceded 28
3
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
