AC Milan vs Torino – 21 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 21 · 17:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 3rd · 60 pts · 29 played DLWWL

3–2Full time

Torino 14th · 33 pts · 29 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were clear favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 35). AC Milan had 5.9 days of rest, Torino 7.9 and had to travel 125 km.

Away travel125 kmRest days5.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

AC Milan63%

Draw23%

Torino13%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.69

AC Milan67%

Draw20%

Torino13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83

AC Milan63%

Draw23%

Torino13%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.69

AC Milan56%

Draw26%

Torino18%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.78

AC Milan65%

Draw22%

Torino13%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.77

Over 2.5 45% Both score 42% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 46

Team strength

AC Milan

Torino

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

72 AttackIn forecast 39

69 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Torino

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.72 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.72

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

90% Scored inContext 69%

45% Clean sheetsContext 34%

13.24 ShotsContext 11.48

4.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.21

34% On target shareContext 37%

9.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.34

69% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.62 Shots allowedContext 13.17

3.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.28

3.37 BlocksContext 3.72

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

84% Save rateContext 62%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

484 PassesContext 366

426 Accurate passesContext 292

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.75

9.97 FoulsContext 13.86

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 10.34

1.52 Yellow cardsContext 1.97

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 10.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 37%

9.38 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

72% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.70 OffsidesContext 2.56

10.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.22 BlocksContext 4.60

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

88% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 42%

500 PassesContext 364

441 Accurate passesContext 291

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.40 FoulsContext 14.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km957 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel125 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	125 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	957 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	16.1	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

11C. Pulišić 9N. Füllkrug

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

77E. Ebosse 44A. Ismajli 23Saúl Coco

33Rafael Obrador 66G. Gineitis 4M. Prati 10N. Vlašić 16M. Pedersen

91D. Zapata 18G. Simeone

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Torino+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 2.00points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-2
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 0.79

Torino · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Torino
Lazio	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A
Inter	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–5 A
Cremonese	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Parma	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Como	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H
Pisa	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
Bologna	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Genoa	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Cagliari	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
Verona	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 A
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Napoli	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Udinese	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 H
Points	57 of 84 · 2.04 per game	33 of 84 · 1.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 AC Milan wins2 draws3 Torino wins

Goals per game1.56 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 11%

8 Dec 2025Torino2–3AC Milan
22 Feb 2025Torino2–1AC Milan
17 Aug 2024AC Milan2–2Torino
18 May 2024Torino3–1AC Milan
26 Aug 2023AC Milan4–1Torino
10 Feb 2023AC Milan1–0Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.10
Conceded per game	0.72	1.72
Match goals	2.24	2.83	2.48
Over 1.5	66%	72%
Over 2.5	41%	62%	45%
Over 3.5	17%	28%
Both teams scored	48%	45%	42%
Clean sheets	45%	34%
Failed to score	10%	31%
Games	29	29

	AC Milan	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	0.60	2.00
Match goals	2.00	3.10	2.48
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	42%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.85	3.70
Corners conceded	4.27	4.85
Match total	9.12	8.55	8.72
Over 8.5	58% 15/26	44% 12/27
Over 9.5	42% 11/26	41% 11/27
Over 10.5	35% 9/26	37% 10/27
Cards
Cards	1.66	2.03
Opponent cards	2.10	1.38
Match total	3.76	3.41	3.94
Over 3.5	55% 16/29	52% 15/29
Over 4.5	31% 9/29	21% 6/29

	AC Milan	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	3.00
Corners conceded	3.78	5.50
Match total	8.56	8.50	8.72
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.20
Match total	3.50	3.70	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.35league 3.76

Red cards0.11league 0.19

Cards 5+52%league 36%

Fouls25.9league 25.2

Penalties0.28league 0.30

Home wins46%league 39%

AC Milan5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

W15 Feb 25H · Verona1–03
D11 Jan 25H · Cagliari1–11
W20 May 23H · Sampdoria5–11
W4 Jan 23A · Salernitana2–11
D11 Dec 21A · Udinese1–12

Torino7 with this referee

Record1-4-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L15 Feb 26H · Bologna1–23
L10 Jan 26A · Atalanta0–22
D8 Mar 25A · Parma2–22
D29 Dec 24A · Udinese2–20
D9 Oct 22H · Empoli1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.