La Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 10 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel438 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Villarreal—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 26 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Villarreal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubVillarreal
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 65
51 AttackIn forecast 76
64 DefenceIn forecast 73
70 Form indexContext 79
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubVillarreal
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.69
57% Scored inContext 67%
57% Clean sheetsContext 11%
14.71 ShotsContext 16.33
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33
29% On target shareContext 39%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 11.11
65% Box shareContext 68%
7% ConversionContext 9%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.89
10.43 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
1.80 BlocksContext 5.14
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
83% Save rateContext 77%
54% PossessionIn forecast 60%
494 PassesContext 573
420 Accurate passesContext 510
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.87
11.43 FoulsContext 11.11
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 2.12
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
60% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.60 ShotsContext 16.50
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
30% On target shareContext 36%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
69% Box shareContext 67%
7% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.90
10.10 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70
1.71 BlocksContext 4.63
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
72% Save rateContext 72%
50% PossessionIn forecast 59%
448 PassesContext 560
372 Accurate passesContext 493
83% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.86
12.70 FoulsContext 10.40
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km149 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel438 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km438 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways149 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Villarreal · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
1-2-2
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubVillarreal
Alaves D 0–0 H L 0–1 A
Elche D 1–1 H D 0–0 H
Atletico Madrid W 3–0 H D 2–2 A
Points5 of 9 · 1.67 per game2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins3 draws3 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 12 Apr 2026Athletic Club1–2Villarreal
  • 27 Sep 2025Villarreal1–0Athletic Club
  • 6 Apr 2025Villarreal0–0Athletic Club
  • 8 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–0Villarreal
  • 14 Apr 2024Athletic Club1–1Villarreal
  • 5 Nov 2023Villarreal2–3Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubVillarrealForecast
Scored per game 1.001.44
Conceded per game 0.861.44
Match goals 1.862.89
Over 1.5 71%67%
Over 2.5 29%67%
Over 3.5 14%56%
Both teams scored 29%67%
Clean sheets 57%11%
Failed to score 43%33%
Games79
Athletic ClubVillarrealForecast
Scored per game 1.001.60
Conceded per game 1.301.50
Match goals 2.303.10
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 30%70%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 40%70%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 40%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubVillarrealLeague
Corners
Corners won6.147.11
Corners conceded4.434.44
Match total10.5711.559.91
Over 8.557% 4/767% 6/9
Over 9.557% 4/767% 6/9
Over 10.557% 4/767% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.291.78
Opponent cards1.863.00
Match total4.154.784.73
Over 3.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 4.543% 3/756% 5/9
Athletic ClubVillarrealLeague
Corners
Corners won5.896.50
Corners conceded4.564.70
Match total10.4511.209.91
Over 8.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.556% 5/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.801.70
Opponent cards1.702.90
Match total3.504.604.73
Over 3.540% 4/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Racing Santander Jan 1016:00 Athletic Club Villarreal Jan 1016:00 Valencia Malaga Jan 1016:00 Sevilla Celta Vigo Jan 1016:00 Espanyol Real Betis Jan 1016:00 Real Madrid Levante Jan 1016:00 Alaves Real Sociedad Jan 1016:00 Deportivo La Coruna Rayo Vallecano Jan 1016:00 Osasuna Barcelona Jan 1016:00 Elche Getafe Jan 1016:00