La Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 10 · 16:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Celta Vigo 8th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel588 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Sevilla—%
Draw—%
Celta Vigo—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 26 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sevilla and Celta Vigo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SevillaCelta Vigo
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
48 AttackIn forecast 36
57 DefenceIn forecast 61
67 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SevillaCelta Vigo
1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.92
1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
100% Scored inContext 56%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
11.78 ShotsContext 9.44
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63
37% On target shareContext 34%
7.44 Shots in the boxContext 4.67
61% Box shareContext 47%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.14 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.67 Shots allowedContext 13.33
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.29 BlocksContext 3.44
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44
60% Save rateContext 80%
41% PossessionIn forecast 50%
344 PassesContext 506
267 Accurate passesContext 438
78% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.87
14.67 FoulsContext 12.22
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.44
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
90% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.50 ShotsContext 10.40
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
36% On target shareContext 32%
7.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
59% Box shareContext 50%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.13 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.60 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.00 BlocksContext 3.80
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
60% Save rateContext 77%
42% PossessionIn forecast 49%
353 PassesContext 497
278 Accurate passesContext 431
79% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.82
15.20 FoulsContext 11.90
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts
Celta Vigo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel588 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sevilla Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km588 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,167 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sevilla Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celta Vigo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75
Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-4-0
Scored
0.25
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSevillaCelta Vigo
Valencia W 1–0 H D 0–0 A
Athletic Club W 3–1 A L 0–2 H
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Sevilla wins4 draws4 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.30 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 23 May 2026Celta Vigo1–0Sevilla
  • 12 Jan 2026Sevilla0–1Celta Vigo
  • 10 May 2025Celta Vigo3–2Sevilla
  • 14 Dec 2024Sevilla1–0Celta Vigo
  • 17 Mar 2024Sevilla1–2Celta Vigo
  • 4 Nov 2023Celta Vigo1–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SevillaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 1.561.11
Conceded per game 1.780.78
Match goals 3.331.89
Over 1.5 78%67%
Over 2.5 67%33%
Over 3.5 56%11%
Both teams scored 78%44%
Clean sheets 22%44%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games99
SevillaCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 1.401.10
Conceded per game 1.701.00
Match goals 3.102.10
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 50%10%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SevillaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won3.003.13
Corners conceded3.564.75
Match total6.567.889.91
Over 8.522% 2/925% 2/8
Over 9.522% 2/925% 2/8
Over 10.511% 1/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards3.331.78
Opponent cards2.112.11
Match total5.443.894.73
Over 3.578% 7/944% 4/9
Over 4.556% 5/944% 4/9
SevillaCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won3.003.67
Corners conceded3.605.22
Match total6.608.899.91
Over 8.520% 2/1033% 3/9
Over 9.520% 2/1033% 3/9
Over 10.510% 1/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards3.101.60
Opponent cards2.001.90
Match total5.103.504.73
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1 0-15
3 16-30
3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Racing Santander Jan 1016:00 Athletic Club Villarreal Jan 1016:00 Valencia Malaga Jan 1016:00 Sevilla Celta Vigo Jan 1016:00 Espanyol Real Betis Jan 1016:00 Real Madrid Levante Jan 1016:00 Alaves Real Sociedad Jan 1016:00 Deportivo La Coruna Rayo Vallecano Jan 1016:00 Osasuna Barcelona Jan 1016:00 Elche Getafe Jan 1016:00